Daily Papers

Machine learning models can make critical errors that are easily hidden within vast amounts of data. Such errors often run counter to rules based on human intuition. However, rules based on human knowledge are challenging to scale or to even formalize. We thereby seek to infer statistical rules from the data and quantify the extent to which a model has learned them. We propose a framework SQRL that integrates logic-based methods with statistical inference to derive these rules from a model's training data without supervision. We further show how to adapt models at test time to reduce rule violations and produce more coherent predictions. SQRL generates up to 300K rules over datasets from vision, tabular, and language settings. We uncover up to 158K violations of those rules by state-of-the-art models for classification, object detection, and data imputation. Test-time adaptation reduces these violations by up to 68.7% with relative performance improvement up to 32%. SQRL is available at https://github.com/DebugML/sqrl.

Machine Learning (ML) models are increasingly used to make critical decisions in real-world applications, yet they have become more complex, making them harder to understand. To this end, researchers have proposed several techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use these explainability techniques because they often do not know which one to choose and how to interpret the results of the explanations. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing TalkToModel: an interactive dialogue system for explaining machine learning models through conversations. Specifically, TalkToModel comprises of three key components: 1) a natural language interface for engaging in conversations, making ML model explainability highly accessible, 2) a dialogue engine that adapts to any tabular model and dataset, interprets natural language, maps it to appropriate explanations, and generates text responses, and 3) an execution component that constructs the explanations. We carried out extensive quantitative and human subject evaluations of TalkToModel. Overall, we found the conversational system understands user inputs on novel datasets and models with high accuracy, demonstrating the system's capacity to generalize to new situations. In real-world evaluations with humans, 73% of healthcare workers (e.g., doctors and nurses) agreed they would use TalkToModel over baseline point-and-click systems for explainability in a disease prediction task, and 85% of ML professionals agreed TalkToModel was easier to use for computing explanations. Our findings demonstrate that TalkToModel is more effective for model explainability than existing systems, introducing a new category of explainability tools for practitioners. Code & demo released here: https://github.com/dylan-slack/TalkToModel.

Inspire therapy is an FDA-approved internal neurostimulation treatment for obstructive sleep apnea. However, not all patients respond to this therapy, posing a challenge even for experienced otolaryngologists to determine candidacy. This paper makes the first attempt to leverage both machine learning and deep learning techniques in discerning patient responsiveness to Inspire therapy using medical data and videos captured through Drug-Induced Sleep Endoscopy (DISE), an essential procedure for Inspire therapy. To achieve this, we gathered and annotated three datasets from 127 patients. Two of these datasets comprise endoscopic videos focused on the Base of the Tongue and Velopharynx. The third dataset composes the patient's clinical information. By utilizing these datasets, we benchmarked and compared the performance of six deep learning models and five classical machine learning algorithms. The results demonstrate the potential of employing machine learning and deep learning techniques to determine a patient's eligibility for Inspire therapy, paving the way for future advancements in this field.

We often interact with untrusted parties. Prioritization of privacy can limit the effectiveness of these interactions, as achieving certain goals necessitates sharing private data. Traditionally, addressing this challenge has involved either seeking trusted intermediaries or constructing cryptographic protocols that restrict how much data is revealed, such as multi-party computations or zero-knowledge proofs. While significant advances have been made in scaling cryptographic approaches, they remain limited in terms of the size and complexity of applications they can be used for. In this paper, we argue that capable machine learning models can fulfill the role of a trusted third party, thus enabling secure computations for applications that were previously infeasible. In particular, we describe Trusted Capable Model Environments (TCMEs) as an alternative approach for scaling secure computation, where capable machine learning model(s) interact under input/output constraints, with explicit information flow control and explicit statelessness. This approach aims to achieve a balance between privacy and computational efficiency, enabling private inference where classical cryptographic solutions are currently infeasible. We describe a number of use cases that are enabled by TCME, and show that even some simple classic cryptographic problems can already be solved with TCME. Finally, we outline current limitations and discuss the path forward in implementing them.

Edge Computing (EC) has gained significant traction in recent years, promising enhanced efficiency by integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) capabilities at the edge. While the focus has primarily been on the deployment and inference of Machine Learning (ML) models at the edge, the training aspect remains less explored. This survey delves into Edge Learning (EL), specifically the optimization of ML model training at the edge. The objective is to comprehensively explore diverse approaches and methodologies in EL, synthesize existing knowledge, identify challenges, and highlight future trends. Utilizing Scopus' advanced search, relevant literature on EL was identified, revealing a concentration of research efforts in distributed learning methods, particularly Federated Learning (FL). This survey further provides a guideline for comparing techniques used to optimize ML for edge learning, along with an exploration of different frameworks, libraries, and simulation tools available for EL. In doing so, the paper contributes to a holistic understanding of the current landscape and future directions in the intersection of edge computing and machine learning, paving the way for informed comparisons between optimization methods and techniques designed for edge learning.

Modern Machine Learning models are expensive IP and business competitiveness often depends on keeping this IP confidential. This in turn restricts how these models are deployed -- for example it is unclear how to deploy a model on-device without inevitably leaking the underlying model. At the same time, confidential computing technologies such as Multi-Party Computation or Homomorphic encryption remain impractical for wide adoption. In this paper we take a different approach and investigate feasibility of ML-specific mechanisms that deter unauthorized model use by restricting the model to only be usable on specific hardware, making adoption on unauthorized hardware inconvenient. That way, even if IP is compromised, it cannot be trivially used without specialised hardware or major model adjustment. In a sense, we seek to enable cheap locking of machine learning models into specific hardware. We demonstrate that locking mechanisms are feasible by either targeting efficiency of model representations, such making models incompatible with quantisation, or tie the model's operation on specific characteristics of hardware, such as number of cycles for arithmetic operations. We demonstrate that locking comes with negligible work and latency overheads, while significantly restricting usability of the resultant model on unauthorized hardware.

Proper evaluations are crucial for better understanding, troubleshooting, interpreting model behaviors and further improving model performance. While using scalar-based error metrics provides a fast way to overview model performance, they are often too abstract to display certain weak spots and lack information regarding important model properties, such as robustness. This not only hinders machine learning models from being more interpretable and gaining trust, but also can be misleading to both model developers and users. Additionally, conventional evaluation procedures often leave researchers unclear about where and how model fails, which complicates model comparisons and further developments. To address these issues, we propose a novel evaluation workflow, named Non-Equivariance Revealed on Orbits (NERO) Evaluation. The goal of NERO evaluation is to turn focus from traditional scalar-based metrics onto evaluating and visualizing models equivariance, closely capturing model robustness, as well as to allow researchers quickly investigating interesting or unexpected model behaviors. NERO evaluation is consist of a task-agnostic interactive interface and a set of visualizations, called NERO plots, which reveals the equivariance property of the model. Case studies on how NERO evaluation can be applied to multiple research areas, including 2D digit recognition, object detection, particle image velocimetry (PIV), and 3D point cloud classification, demonstrate that NERO evaluation can quickly illustrate different model equivariance, and effectively explain model behaviors through interactive visualizations of the model outputs. In addition, we propose consensus, an alternative to ground truths, to be used in NERO evaluation so that model equivariance can still be evaluated with new, unlabeled datasets.

In the past few years, more and more AI applications have been applied to edge devices. However, models trained by data scientists with machine learning frameworks, such as PyTorch or TensorFlow, can not be seamlessly executed on edge. In this paper, we develop an end-to-end code generator parsing a pre-trained model to C source libraries for the backend using MicroTVM, a machine learning compiler framework extension addressing inference on bare metal devices. An analysis shows that specific compute-intensive operators can be easily offloaded to the dedicated accelerator with a Universal Modular Accelerator (UMA) interface, while others are processed in the CPU cores. By using the automatically generated ahead-of-time C runtime, we conduct a hand gesture recognition experiment on an ARM Cortex M4F core.

Motivated by the large progress made by large language models (LLMs), we introduce the framework of verbalized machine learning (VML). In contrast to conventional machine learning models that are typically optimized over a continuous parameter space, VML constrains the parameter space to be human-interpretable natural language. Such a constraint leads to a new perspective of function approximation, where an LLM with a text prompt can be viewed as a function parameterized by the text prompt. Guided by this perspective, we revisit classical machine learning problems, such as regression and classification, and find that these problems can be solved by an LLM-parameterized learner and optimizer. The major advantages of VML include (1) easy encoding of inductive bias: prior knowledge about the problem and hypothesis class can be encoded in natural language and fed into the LLM-parameterized learner; (2) automatic model class selection: the optimizer can automatically select a concrete model class based on data and verbalized prior knowledge, and it can update the model class during training; and (3) interpretable learner updates: the LLM-parameterized optimizer can provide explanations for why each learner update is performed. We conduct several studies to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of VML, and hope that VML can serve as a stepping stone to stronger interpretability and trustworthiness in ML.

The application of superconducting materials is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the discovery of new superconducting materials relies on the experience of experts and a large number of "trial and error" experiments, which not only increases the cost of experiments but also prolongs the period of discovering new superconducting materials. In recent years, machine learning has been increasingly applied to materials science. Based on this, this manuscript proposes the use of XGBoost model to identify superconductors; the first application of deep forest model to predict the critical temperature of superconductors; the first application of deep forest to predict the band gap of materials; and application of a new sub-network model to predict the Fermi energy level of materials. Compared with our known similar literature, all the above algorithms reach state-of-the-art. Finally, this manuscript uses the above models to search the COD public dataset and identify 50 candidate superconducting materials with possible critical temperature greater than 90 K.

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly integrated into our everyday Web experience, there is a call for transparent and explainable web-based ML. However, existing explainability techniques often require dedicated backend servers, which limit their usefulness as the Web community moves toward in-browser ML for lower latency and greater privacy. To address the pressing need for a client-side explainability solution, we present WebSHAP, the first in-browser tool that adapts the state-of-the-art model-agnostic explainability technique SHAP to the Web environment. Our open-source tool is developed with modern Web technologies such as WebGL that leverage client-side hardware capabilities and make it easy to integrate into existing Web ML applications. We demonstrate WebSHAP in a usage scenario of explaining ML-based loan approval decisions to loan applicants. Reflecting on our work, we discuss the opportunities and challenges for future research on transparent Web ML. WebSHAP is available at https://github.com/poloclub/webshap.

The FAIR Guiding Principles aim to improve the findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability of digital content by making them both human and machine actionable. However, these principles have not yet been broadly adopted in the domain of machine learning-based program analyses and optimizations for High-Performance Computing (HPC). In this paper, we design a methodology to make HPC datasets and machine learning models FAIR after investigating existing FAIRness assessment and improvement techniques. Our methodology includes a comprehensive, quantitative assessment for elected data, followed by concrete, actionable suggestions to improve FAIRness with respect to common issues related to persistent identifiers, rich metadata descriptions, license and provenance information. Moreover, we select a representative training dataset to evaluate our methodology. The experiment shows the methodology can effectively improve the dataset and model's FAIRness from an initial score of 19.1% to the final score of 83.0%.

Machine learning (ML) interpretability techniques can reveal undesirable patterns in data that models exploit to make predictions--potentially causing harms once deployed. However, how to take action to address these patterns is not always clear. In a collaboration between ML and human-computer interaction researchers, physicians, and data scientists, we develop GAM Changer, the first interactive system to help domain experts and data scientists easily and responsibly edit Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and fix problematic patterns. With novel interaction techniques, our tool puts interpretability into action--empowering users to analyze, validate, and align model behaviors with their knowledge and values. Physicians have started to use our tool to investigate and fix pneumonia and sepsis risk prediction models, and an evaluation with 7 data scientists working in diverse domains highlights that our tool is easy to use, meets their model editing needs, and fits into their current workflows. Built with modern web technologies, our tool runs locally in users' web browsers or computational notebooks, lowering the barrier to use. GAM Changer is available at the following public demo link: https://interpret.ml/gam-changer.

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight their accuracy, robustness, and adaptability to the volatile cryptocurrency market. Our comprehensive analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of each model, providing critical insights for developing effective trading strategies. We employ both machine learning metrics (e.g., Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error) and trading metrics (e.g., Profit and Loss percentage, Sharpe Ratio) to assess model performance. Our evaluation includes backtesting on historical data, forward testing on recent unseen data, and real-world trading scenarios, ensuring the robustness and practical applicability of our models. Key findings demonstrate that certain models, such as Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent, outperform others in terms of profit and risk management. These insights offer valuable guidance for traders and researchers aiming to leverage machine learning for cryptocurrency trading.

In the realm of robot action recognition, identifying distinct but spatially proximate arm movements using vision systems in noisy environments poses a significant challenge. This paper studies robot arm action recognition in noisy environments using machine learning techniques. Specifically, a vision system is used to track the robot's movements followed by a deep learning model to extract the arm's key points. Through a comparative analysis of machine learning methods, the effectiveness and robustness of this model are assessed in noisy environments. A case study was conducted using the Tic-Tac-Toe game in a 3-by-3 grid environment, where the focus is to accurately identify the actions of the arms in selecting specific locations within this constrained environment. Experimental results show that our approach can achieve precise key point detection and action classification despite the addition of noise and uncertainties to the dataset.

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

Using blockchain technology, it is possible to create contracts that offer a reward in exchange for a trained machine learning model for a particular data set. This would allow users to train machine learning models for a reward in a trustless manner. The smart contract will use the blockchain to automatically validate the solution, so there would be no debate about whether the solution was correct or not. Users who submit the solutions won't have counterparty risk that they won't get paid for their work. Contracts can be created easily by anyone with a dataset, even programmatically by software agents. This creates a market where parties who are good at solving machine learning problems can directly monetize their skillset, and where any organization or software agent that has a problem to solve with AI can solicit solutions from all over the world. This will incentivize the creation of better machine learning models, and make AI more accessible to companies and software agents.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has experienced remarkable progress in recent years, driven by the widespread adoption of open-source machine learning models in both research and industry. Considering the resource-intensive nature of training on vast datasets, many applications opt for models that have already been trained. Hence, a small number of key players undertake the responsibility of training and publicly releasing large pre-trained models, providing a crucial foundation for a wide range of applications. However, the adoption of these open-source models carries inherent privacy and security risks that are often overlooked. To provide a concrete example, an inconspicuous model may conceal hidden functionalities that, when triggered by specific input patterns, can manipulate the behavior of the system, such as instructing self-driving cars to ignore the presence of other vehicles. The implications of successful privacy and security attacks encompass a broad spectrum, ranging from relatively minor damage like service interruptions to highly alarming scenarios, including physical harm or the exposure of sensitive user data. In this work, we present a comprehensive overview of common privacy and security threats associated with the use of open-source models. By raising awareness of these dangers, we strive to promote the responsible and secure use of AI systems.

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal hyper-parameters during an iterative sequential process. However, most of the Bayesian Optimization algorithms are designed to select models for effectiveness only and ignore the important issue of model training efficiency. Given that both model effectiveness and training time are important for real-world applications, models selected for effectiveness may not meet the strict training time requirements necessary to deploy in a production environment. In this work, we present a unified Bayesian Optimization framework for jointly optimizing models for both prediction effectiveness and training efficiency. We propose an objective that captures the tradeoff between these two metrics and demonstrate how we can jointly optimize them in a principled Bayesian Optimization framework. Experiments on model selection for recommendation tasks indicate models selected this way significantly improves model training efficiency while maintaining strong effectiveness as compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian Optimization algorithms.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention-based models. These models are assessed for their ability to capture complex temporal dependencies inherent in stock market data. Our findings show that attention-based models outperform other architectures, achieving the highest accuracy by capturing both short and long-term dependencies. This study contributes valuable insights into AI-driven financial forecasting, offering practical guidance for developing more accurate and efficient trading systems.

The proliferation of Machine Learning (ML) models and their open-source implementations has transformed Artificial Intelligence research and applications. Platforms like Hugging Face (HF) enable the development, sharing, and deployment of these models, fostering an evolving ecosystem. While previous studies have examined aspects of models hosted on platforms like HF, a comprehensive longitudinal study of how these models change remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by utilizing both repository mining and longitudinal analysis methods to examine over 200,000 commits and 1,200 releases from over 50,000 models on HF. We replicate and extend an ML change taxonomy for classifying commits and utilize Bayesian networks to uncover patterns in commit and release activities over time. Our findings indicate that commit activities align with established data science methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, emphasizing iterative refinement and continuous improvement. Additionally, release patterns tend to consolidate significant updates, particularly in documentation, distinguishing between granular changes and milestone-based releases. Furthermore, projects with higher popularity prioritize infrastructure enhancements early in their lifecycle, and those with intensive collaboration practices exhibit improved documentation standards. These and other insights enhance the understanding of model changes on community platforms and provide valuable guidance for best practices in model maintenance.

About 90% of the computing resources available to the LHCb experiment has been spent to produce simulated data samples for Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The upgraded LHCb detector will be able to collect larger data samples, requiring many more simulated events to analyze the data to be collected in Run 3. Simulation is a key necessity of analysis to interpret signal, reject background and measure efficiencies. The needed simulation will far exceed the pledged resources, requiring an evolution in technologies and techniques to produce these simulated data samples. In this contribution, we discuss Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework to speed-up the simulation production parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Deep Generative Models powered by several algorithms and strategies are employed to effectively parameterize the high-level response of the single components of the LHCb detector, encoding within neural networks the experimental errors and uncertainties introduced in the detection and reconstruction phases. Where possible, models are trained directly on real data, statistically subtracting any background components by applying appropriate reweighing procedures. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows to combine its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. The resulting software package enables a simulation process independent of the detailed simulation used to date.

Recent work has proposed stateful defense models (SDMs) as a compelling strategy to defend against a black-box attacker who only has query access to the model, as is common for online machine learning platforms. Such stateful defenses aim to defend against black-box attacks by tracking the query history and detecting and rejecting queries that are "similar" and thus preventing black-box attacks from finding useful gradients and making progress towards finding adversarial attacks within a reasonable query budget. Recent SDMs (e.g., Blacklight and PIHA) have shown remarkable success in defending against state-of-the-art black-box attacks. In this paper, we show that SDMs are highly vulnerable to a new class of adaptive black-box attacks. We propose a novel adaptive black-box attack strategy called Oracle-guided Adaptive Rejection Sampling (OARS) that involves two stages: (1) use initial query patterns to infer key properties about an SDM's defense; and, (2) leverage those extracted properties to design subsequent query patterns to evade the SDM's defense while making progress towards finding adversarial inputs. OARS is broadly applicable as an enhancement to existing black-box attacks - we show how to apply the strategy to enhance six common black-box attacks to be more effective against current class of SDMs. For example, OARS-enhanced versions of black-box attacks improved attack success rate against recent stateful defenses from almost 0% to to almost 100% for multiple datasets within reasonable query budgets.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to outperform traditional machine learning algorithms in a broad variety of application domains due to their effectiveness in modeling complex problems and handling high-dimensional datasets. Many real-life datasets, however, are of increasingly high dimensionality, where a large number of features may be irrelevant for both supervised and unsupervised learning tasks. The inclusion of such features would not only introduce unwanted noise but also increase computational complexity. Furthermore, due to high non-linearity and dependency among a large number of features, DNN models tend to be unavoidably opaque and perceived as black-box methods because of their not well-understood internal functioning. Their algorithmic complexity is often simply beyond the capacities of humans to understand the interplay among myriads of hyperparameters. A well-interpretable model can identify statistically significant features and explain the way they affect the model's outcome. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to improve the interpretability of black-box models for classification tasks in the case of high-dimensional datasets. First, we train a black-box model on a high-dimensional dataset to learn the embeddings on which the classification is performed. To decompose the inner working principles of the black-box model and to identify top-k important features, we employ different probing and perturbing techniques. We then approximate the behavior of the black-box model by means of an interpretable surrogate model on the top-k feature space. Finally, we derive decision rules and local explanations from the surrogate model to explain individual decisions. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods like TabNet and XGboost when tested on different datasets with varying dimensionality between 50 and 20,000 w.r.t metrics and explainability.

Making statements about the performance of trained models on tasks involving new data is one of the primary goals of machine learning, i.e., to understand the generalization power of a model. Various capacity measures try to capture this ability, but usually fall short in explaining important characteristics of models that we observe in practice. In this study, we propose the local effective dimension as a capacity measure which seems to correlate well with generalization error on standard data sets. Importantly, we prove that the local effective dimension bounds the generalization error and discuss the aptness of this capacity measure for machine learning models.

This paper introduces the Encog library for Java and C#, a scalable, adaptable, multiplatform machine learning framework that was 1st released in 2008. Encog allows a variety of machine learning models to be applied to datasets using regression, classification, and clustering. Various supported machine learning models can be used interchangeably with minimal recoding. Encog uses efficient multithreaded code to reduce training time by exploiting modern multicore processors. The current version of Encog can be downloaded from http://www.encog.org.

Accurate diagnosis of power transformer faults is essential for ensuring the stability and safety of electrical power systems. This study presents a comparative analysis of conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms and deep learning (DL) algorithms for fault classification of power transformers. Using a condition-monitored dataset spanning 10 months, various gas concentration features were normalized and used to train five ML classifiers: Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In addition, four DL models were evaluated: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN), and TabNet. Experimental results show that both ML and DL approaches performed comparably. The RF model achieved the highest ML accuracy at 86.82%, while the 1D-CNN model attained a close 86.30%.

The emergence of hybrid quantum-classical machine learning (HQML) models opens new horizons of computational intelligence but their fundamental complexity frequently leads to black box behavior that undermines transparency and reliability in their application. Although XAI for quantum systems still in its infancy, a major research gap is evident in robust global and local explainability approaches that are designed for HQML architectures that employ quantized feature encoding followed by classical learning. The gap is the focus of this work, which introduces QuXAI, an framework based upon Q-MEDLEY, an explainer for explaining feature importance in these hybrid systems. Our model entails the creation of HQML models incorporating quantum feature maps, the use of Q-MEDLEY, which combines feature based inferences, preserving the quantum transformation stage and visualizing the resulting attributions. Our result shows that Q-MEDLEY delineates influential classical aspects in HQML models, as well as separates their noise, and competes well against established XAI techniques in classical validation settings. Ablation studies more significantly expose the virtues of the composite structure used in Q-MEDLEY. The implications of this work are critically important, as it provides a route to improve the interpretability and reliability of HQML models, thus promoting greater confidence and being able to engage in safer and more responsible use of quantum-enhanced AI technology.

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML techniques this hybrid model leverages quantum properties like superposition and entanglement to achieve better accuracy and efficiency classical and QML models are compared based on training time accuracy and scalability results show that QML models offer competitive training times and improved prediction accuracy this research signifies a step towards utilizing quantum technologies for climate change adaptation we emphasize collaboration and continuous innovation to implement this model in real-world flood management ultimately enhancing global resilience against floods

In this research, a comparative study of four Quantum Machine Learning (QML) models was conducted for fraud detection in finance. We proved that the Quantum Support Vector Classifier model achieved the highest performance, with F1 scores of 0.98 for fraud and non-fraud classes. Other models like the Variational Quantum Classifier, Estimator Quantum Neural Network (QNN), and Sampler QNN demonstrate promising results, propelling the potential of QML classification for financial applications. While they exhibit certain limitations, the insights attained pave the way for future enhancements and optimisation strategies. However, challenges exist, including the need for more efficient Quantum algorithms and larger and more complex datasets. The article provides solutions to overcome current limitations and contributes new insights to the field of Quantum Machine Learning in fraud detection, with important implications for its future development.

In recent years, Data Science has become increasingly relevant as a support tool for industry, significantly enhancing decision-making in a way never seen before. In this context, the MLOps discipline emerges as a solution to automate the life cycle of Machine Learning models, ranging from experimentation to monitoring in productive environments. Research results shows MLOps is a constantly evolving discipline, with challenges and solutions for integrating development and production environments, publishing models in production environments, and monitoring models throughout the end to end development lifecycle. This paper contributes to the understanding of MLOps techniques and their most diverse applications.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

In order to properly train a machine learning model, data must be properly collected. To guarantee a proper data collection, verifying that the collected data set holds certain properties is a possible solution. For example, guaranteeing that the data set contains samples across the whole input space, or that the data set is balanced w.r.t. different classes. We present a formal approach for verifying a set of arbitrarily stated properties over a data set. The proposed approach relies on the transformation of the data set into a first order logic formula, which can be later verified w.r.t. the different properties also stated in the same logic. A prototype tool, which uses the z3 solver, has been developed; the prototype can take as an input a set of properties stated in a formal language and formally verify a given data set w.r.t. to the given set of properties. Preliminary experimental results show the feasibility and performance of the proposed approach, and furthermore the flexibility for expressing properties of interest.

Model stores offer third-party ML models and datasets for easy project integration, minimizing coding efforts. One might hope to find detailed specifications of these models and datasets in the documentation, leveraging documentation standards such as model and dataset cards. In this study, we use statistical analysis and hybrid card sorting to assess the state of the practice of documenting model cards and dataset cards in one of the largest model stores in use today--Hugging Face (HF). Our findings show that only 21,902 models (39.62\%) and 1,925 datasets (28.48\%) have documentation. Furthermore, we observe inconsistency in ethics and transparency-related documentation for ML models and datasets.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

This research showcases the innovative integration of Large Language Models into machine learning workflows for traffic incident management, focusing on the classification of incident severity using accident reports. By leveraging features generated by modern language models alongside conventional data extracted from incident reports, our research demonstrates improvements in the accuracy of severity classification across several machine learning algorithms. Our contributions are threefold. First, we present an extensive comparison of various machine learning models paired with multiple large language models for feature extraction, aiming to identify the optimal combinations for accurate incident severity classification. Second, we contrast traditional feature engineering pipelines with those enhanced by language models, showcasing the superiority of language-based feature engineering in processing unstructured text. Third, our study illustrates how merging baseline features from accident reports with language-based features can improve the severity classification accuracy. This comprehensive approach not only advances the field of incident management but also highlights the cross-domain application potential of our methodology, particularly in contexts requiring the prediction of event outcomes from unstructured textual data or features translated into textual representation. Specifically, our novel methodology was applied to three distinct datasets originating from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Queensland, Australia. This cross-continental application underlines the robustness of our approach, suggesting its potential for widespread adoption in improving incident management processes globally.

Currently, most machine learning models are trained by centralized teams and are rarely updated. In contrast, open-source software development involves the iterative development of a shared artifact through distributed collaboration using a version control system. In the interest of enabling collaborative and continual improvement of machine learning models, we introduce Git-Theta, a version control system for machine learning models. Git-Theta is an extension to Git, the most widely used version control software, that allows fine-grained tracking of changes to model parameters alongside code and other artifacts. Unlike existing version control systems that treat a model checkpoint as a blob of data, Git-Theta leverages the structure of checkpoints to support communication-efficient updates, automatic model merges, and meaningful reporting about the difference between two versions of a model. In addition, Git-Theta includes a plug-in system that enables users to easily add support for new functionality. In this paper, we introduce Git-Theta's design and features and include an example use-case of Git-Theta where a pre-trained model is continually adapted and modified. We publicly release Git-Theta in hopes of kickstarting a new era of collaborative model development.

This paper describes EMBER: a labeled benchmark dataset for training machine learning models to statically detect malicious Windows portable executable files. The dataset includes features extracted from 1.1M binary files: 900K training samples (300K malicious, 300K benign, 300K unlabeled) and 200K test samples (100K malicious, 100K benign). To accompany the dataset, we also release open source code for extracting features from additional binaries so that additional sample features can be appended to the dataset. This dataset fills a void in the information security machine learning community: a benign/malicious dataset that is large, open and general enough to cover several interesting use cases. We enumerate several use cases that we considered when structuring the dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate one use case wherein we compare a baseline gradient boosted decision tree model trained using LightGBM with default settings to MalConv, a recently published end-to-end (featureless) deep learning model for malware detection. Results show that even without hyper-parameter optimization, the baseline EMBER model outperforms MalConv. The authors hope that the dataset, code and baseline model provided by EMBER will help invigorate machine learning research for malware detection, in much the same way that benchmark datasets have advanced computer vision research.

Named Entity Recognition (NER) models play a crucial role in various NLP tasks, including information extraction (IE) and text understanding. In academic writing, references to machine learning models and datasets are fundamental components of various computer science publications and necessitate accurate models for identification. Despite the advancements in NER, existing ground truth datasets do not treat fine-grained types like ML model and model architecture as separate entity types, and consequently, baseline models cannot recognize them as such. In this paper, we release a corpus of 100 manually annotated full-text scientific publications and a first baseline model for 10 entity types centered around ML models and datasets. In order to provide a nuanced understanding of how ML models and datasets are mentioned and utilized, our dataset also contains annotations for informal mentions like "our BERT-based model" or "an image CNN". You can find the ground truth dataset and code to replicate model training at https://data.gesis.org/gsap/gsap-ner.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

This paper proposes a novel framework to predict traffic flows' bandwidth ahead of time. Modern network management systems share a common issue: the network situation evolves between the moment the decision is made and the moment when actions (countermeasures) are applied. This framework converts packets from real-life traffic into flows containing relevant features. Machine learning models, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Deep Neural Network, are trained on these data to predict the bandwidth at the next time instance for every flow. Predictions can be fed to the management system instead of current flows bandwidth in order to take decisions on a more accurate network state. Experiments were performed on 981,774 flows and 15 different time windows (from 0.03s to 4s). They show that the Random Forest is the best performing and most reliable model, with a predictive performance consistently better than relying on the current bandwidth (+19.73% in mean absolute error and +18.00% in root mean square error). Experimental results indicate that this framework can help network management systems to take more informed decisions using a predicted network state.

This paper presents a machine-learning study for solar inverter power regulation in a remote microgrid. Machine learning models for active and reactive power control are respectively trained using an ensemble learning method. Then, unlike conventional schemes that make inferences on a central server in the far-end control center, the proposed scheme deploys the trained models on an embedded edge-computing device near the inverter to reduce the communication delay. Experiments on a real embedded device achieve matched results as on the desktop PC, with about 0.1ms time cost for each inference input.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Machine learning models often learn latent embedding representations that capture the domain semantics of their training data. These embedding representations are valuable for interpreting trained models, building new models, and analyzing new datasets. However, interpreting and using embeddings can be challenging due to their opaqueness, high dimensionality, and the large size of modern datasets. To tackle these challenges, we present WizMap, an interactive visualization tool to help researchers and practitioners easily explore large embeddings. With a novel multi-resolution embedding summarization method and a familiar map-like interaction design, WizMap enables users to navigate and interpret embedding spaces with ease. Leveraging modern web technologies such as WebGL and Web Workers, WizMap scales to millions of embedding points directly in users' web browsers and computational notebooks without the need for dedicated backend servers. WizMap is open-source and available at the following public demo link: https://poloclub.github.io/wizmap.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer subtype. We refer to this problem as hidden stratification, and observe that it results from incompletely describing the meaningful variation in a dataset. While hidden stratification can substantially reduce the clinical efficacy of machine learning models, its effects remain difficult to measure. In this work, we assess the utility of several possible techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects, and characterize these effects on multiple medical imaging datasets. We find evidence that hidden stratification can occur in unidentified imaging subsets with low prevalence, low label quality, subtle distinguishing features, or spurious correlates, and that it can result in relative performance differences of over 20% on clinically important subsets. Finally, we explore the clinical implications of our findings, and suggest that evaluation of hidden stratification should be a critical component of any machine learning deployment in medical imaging.

Restart strategies are an important factor in the performance of conflict-driven Davis Putnam style SAT solvers. Selecting a good restart strategy for a problem instance can enhance the performance of a solver. Inspired by recent success applying machine learning techniques to predict the runtime of SAT solvers, we present a method which uses machine learning to boost solver performance through a smart selection of the restart strategy. Based on easy to compute features, we train both a satisfiability classifier and runtime models. We use these models to choose between restart strategies. We present experimental results comparing this technique with the most commonly used restart strategies. Our results demonstrate that machine learning is effective in improving solver performance.

The emergence of drones has added new dimension to privacy and security issues. There are little or no strict regulations on the people that can purchase or own a drone. For this reason, people can take advantage of these aircraft to intrude into restricted or private areas. A Drone Detection and Identification (DDI) system is one of the ways of detecting and identifying the presence of a drone in an area. DDI systems can employ different sensing technique such radio frequency (RF) signals, video, sounds and thermal for detecting an intruding drone. In this work, we propose a machine learning RF-based DDI system that uses low band RF signals from drone-to-flight controller communication. We develop three machine learning models using the XGBoost algorithm to detect and identify the presence of a drone, the type of drones and the operational mode of drones. For these three XGBoost models, we evaluated the models using 10-fold cross validation and we achieve average accuracy of 99.96%, 90.73% and 70.09% respectively.

As the use of Lithium-ion batteries continues to grow, it becomes increasingly important to be able to predict their remaining useful life. This work aims to compare the relative performance of different machine learning algorithms, both traditional machine learning and deep learning, in order to determine the best-performing algorithms for battery cycle life prediction based on minimal data. We investigated 14 different machine learning models that were fed handcrafted features based on statistical data and split into 3 feature groups for testing. For deep learning models, we tested a variety of neural network models including different configurations of standard Recurrent Neural Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Long Short Term Memory with and without attention mechanism. Deep learning models were fed multivariate time series signals based on the raw data for each battery across the first 100 cycles. Our experiments revealed that the machine learning algorithms on handcrafted features performed particularly well, resulting in 10-20% average mean absolute percentage error. The best-performing algorithm was the Random Forest Regressor, which gave a minimum 9.8% mean absolute percentage error. Traditional machine learning models excelled due to their capability to comprehend general data set trends. In comparison, deep learning models were observed to perform particularly poorly on raw, limited data. Algorithms like GRU and RNNs that focused on capturing medium-range data dependencies were less adept at recognizing the gradual, slow trends critical for this task. Our investigation reveals that implementing machine learning models with hand-crafted features proves to be more effective than advanced deep learning models for predicting the remaining useful Lithium-ion battery life with limited data availability.

Quantum machine learning models have shown successful generalization performance even when trained with few data. In this work, through systematic randomization experiments, we show that traditional approaches to understanding generalization fail to explain the behavior of such quantum models. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art quantum neural networks accurately fit random states and random labeling of training data. This ability to memorize random data defies current notions of small generalization error, problematizing approaches that build on complexity measures such as the VC dimension, the Rademacher complexity, and all their uniform relatives. We complement our empirical results with a theoretical construction showing that quantum neural networks can fit arbitrary labels to quantum states, hinting at their memorization ability. Our results do not preclude the possibility of good generalization with few training data but rather rule out any possible guarantees based only on the properties of the model family. These findings expose a fundamental challenge in the conventional understanding of generalization in quantum machine learning and highlight the need for a paradigm shift in the design of quantum models for machine learning tasks.

Accurate prediction of bond dissociation energies (BDEs) underpins mechanistic insight and the rational design of molecules and materials. We present a systematic, reproducible benchmark comparing quantum and classical machine learning models for BDE prediction using a chemically curated feature set encompassing atomic properties (atomic numbers, hybridization), bond characteristics (bond order, type), and local environmental descriptors. Our quantum framework, implemented in Qiskit Aer on six qubits, employs ZZFeatureMap encodings with variational ansatz (RealAmplitudes) across multiple architectures Variational Quantum Regressors (VQR), Quantum Support Vector Regressors (QSVR), Quantum Neural Networks (QNN), Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks (QCNN), and Quantum Random Forests (QRF). These are rigorously benchmarked against strong classical baselines, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forests (RF), and Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP). Comprehensive evaluation spanning absolute and relative error metrics, threshold accuracies, and error distributions shows that top-performing quantum models (QCNN, QRF) match the predictive accuracy and robustness of classical ensembles and deep networks, particularly within the chemically prevalent mid-range BDE regime. These findings establish a transparent baseline for quantum-enhanced molecular property prediction and outline a practical foundation for advancing quantum computational chemistry toward near chemical accuracy.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

Deploying machine learning models in production may allow adversaries to infer sensitive information about training data. There is a vast literature analyzing different types of inference risks, ranging from membership inference to reconstruction attacks. Inspired by the success of games (i.e., probabilistic experiments) to study security properties in cryptography, some authors describe privacy inference risks in machine learning using a similar game-based style. However, adversary capabilities and goals are often stated in subtly different ways from one presentation to the other, which makes it hard to relate and compose results. In this paper, we present a game-based framework to systematize the body of knowledge on privacy inference risks in machine learning. We use this framework to (1) provide a unifying structure for definitions of inference risks, (2) formally establish known relations among definitions, and (3) to uncover hitherto unknown relations that would have been difficult to spot otherwise.

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent ML / AI concepts, starting from natural language processes (NLP) applied to economic sectors' (textual) descriptions using embedding and autoencoders (AE), going through the classification of defaultable firms on the base of a wide range of economic features using gradient boosting machines (GBM) and calibrating their probabilities paying due attention to the treatment of unbalanced samples. Finally we assign credit ratings through genetic algorithms (differential evolution, DE). Model interpretability is achieved by implementing recent techniques such as SHAP and LIME, which explain predictions locally in features' space.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.

Image classification, a pivotal task in multiple industries, faces computational challenges due to the burgeoning volume of visual data. This research addresses these challenges by introducing two quantum machine learning models that leverage the principles of quantum mechanics for effective computations. Our first model, a hybrid quantum neural network with parallel quantum circuits, enables the execution of computations even in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum era, where circuits with a large number of qubits are currently infeasible. This model demonstrated a record-breaking classification accuracy of 99.21% on the full MNIST dataset, surpassing the performance of known quantum-classical models, while having eight times fewer parameters than its classical counterpart. Also, the results of testing this hybrid model on a Medical MNIST (classification accuracy over 99%), and on CIFAR-10 (classification accuracy over 82%), can serve as evidence of the generalizability of the model and highlights the efficiency of quantum layers in distinguishing common features of input data. Our second model introduces a hybrid quantum neural network with a Quanvolutional layer, reducing image resolution via a convolution process. The model matches the performance of its classical counterpart, having four times fewer trainable parameters, and outperforms a classical model with equal weight parameters. These models represent advancements in quantum machine learning research and illuminate the path towards more accurate image classification systems.

With recent dramatic increases in AI system capabilities, there has been growing interest in utilizing machine learning for reasoning-heavy, quantitative tasks, particularly mathematics. While there are many resources capturing mathematics at the high-school, undergraduate, and graduate level, there are far fewer resources available that align with the level of difficulty and open endedness encountered by professional mathematicians working on open problems. To address this, we introduce a new collection of datasets, the Algebraic Combinatorics Dataset Repository (ACD Repo), representing either foundational results or open problems in algebraic combinatorics, a subfield of mathematics that studies discrete structures arising from abstract algebra. Further differentiating our dataset collection is the fact that it aims at the conjecturing process. Each dataset includes an open-ended research-level question and a large collection of examples (up to 10M in some cases) from which conjectures should be generated. We describe all nine datasets, the different ways machine learning models can be applied to them (e.g., training with narrow models followed by interpretability analysis or program synthesis with LLMs), and discuss some of the challenges involved in designing datasets like these.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Echocardiography is crucial for cardiovascular disease detection but relies heavily on experienced sonographers. Echocardiography probe guidance systems, which provide real-time movement instructions for acquiring standard plane images, offer a promising solution for AI-assisted or fully autonomous scanning. However, developing effective machine learning models for this task remains challenging, as they must grasp heart anatomy and the intricate interplay between probe motion and visual signals. To address this, we present EchoWorld, a motion-aware world modeling framework for probe guidance that encodes anatomical knowledge and motion-induced visual dynamics, while effectively leveraging past visual-motion sequences to enhance guidance precision. EchoWorld employs a pre-training strategy inspired by world modeling principles, where the model predicts masked anatomical regions and simulates the visual outcomes of probe adjustments. Built upon this pre-trained model, we introduce a motion-aware attention mechanism in the fine-tuning stage that effectively integrates historical visual-motion data, enabling precise and adaptive probe guidance. Trained on more than one million ultrasound images from over 200 routine scans, EchoWorld effectively captures key echocardiographic knowledge, as validated by qualitative analysis. Moreover, our method significantly reduces guidance errors compared to existing visual backbones and guidance frameworks, excelling in both single-frame and sequential evaluation protocols. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/EchoWorld.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

In this paper we show how tensor networks help in developing explainability of machine learning algorithms. Specifically, we develop an unsupervised clustering algorithm based on Matrix Product States (MPS) and apply it in the context of a real use-case of adversary-generated threat intelligence. Our investigation proves that MPS rival traditional deep learning models such as autoencoders and GANs in terms of performance, while providing much richer model interpretability. Our approach naturally facilitates the extraction of feature-wise probabilities, Von Neumann Entropy, and mutual information, offering a compelling narrative for classification of anomalies and fostering an unprecedented level of transparency and interpretability, something fundamental to understand the rationale behind artificial intelligence decisions.

Explainable machine learning holds great potential for analyzing and understanding learning-based systems. These methods can, however, be manipulated to present unfaithful explanations, giving rise to powerful and stealthy adversaries. In this paper, we demonstrate blinding attacks that can fully disguise an ongoing attack against the machine learning model. Similar to neural backdoors, we modify the model's prediction upon trigger presence but simultaneously also fool the provided explanation. This enables an adversary to hide the presence of the trigger or point the explanation to entirely different portions of the input, throwing a red herring. We analyze different manifestations of such attacks for different explanation types in the image domain, before we resume to conduct a red-herring attack against malware classification.

Anxiety is a common mental health condition characterised by excessive worry, fear and apprehension about everyday situations. Even with significant progress over the past few years, predicting anxiety from electroencephalographic (EEG) signals, specifically using error-related negativity (ERN), still remains challenging. Following the PRISMA protocol, this paper systematically reviews 54 research papers on using EEG and ERN markers for anxiety detection published in the last 10 years (2013 -- 2023). Our analysis highlights the wide usage of traditional machine learning, such as support vector machines and random forests, as well as deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks across different data types. Our analysis reveals that the development of a robust and generic anxiety prediction method still needs to address real-world challenges, such as task-specific setup, feature selection and computational modelling. We conclude this review by offering potential future direction for non-invasive, objective anxiety diagnostics, deployed across diverse populations and anxiety sub-types.

Machine learning techniques are essential tools to compute efficient, yet accurate, force fields for atomistic simulations. This approach has recently been extended to incorporate quantum computational methods, making use of variational quantum learning models to predict potential energy surfaces and atomic forces from ab initio training data. However, the trainability and scalability of such models are still limited, due to both theoretical and practical barriers. Inspired by recent developments in geometric classical and quantum machine learning, here we design quantum neural networks that explicitly incorporate, as a data-inspired prior, an extensive set of physically relevant symmetries. We find that our invariant quantum learning models outperform their more generic counterparts on individual molecules of growing complexity. Furthermore, we study a water dimer as a minimal example of a system with multiple components, showcasing the versatility of our proposed approach and opening the way towards larger simulations. Our results suggest that molecular force fields generation can significantly profit from leveraging the framework of geometric quantum machine learning, and that chemical systems represent, in fact, an interesting and rich playground for the development and application of advanced quantum machine learning tools.

We propose a hybrid machine learning architecture that simultaneously employs multiple deep learning models analyzing contextual and behavioral characteristics of Windows portable executable, producing a final prediction based on a decision from the meta-model. The detection heuristic in contemporary machine learning Windows malware classifiers is typically based on the static properties of the sample since dynamic analysis through virtualization is challenging for vast quantities of samples. To surpass this limitation, we employ a Windows kernel emulation that allows the acquisition of behavioral patterns across large corpora with minimal temporal and computational costs. We partner with a security vendor for a collection of more than 100k int-the-wild samples that resemble the contemporary threat landscape, containing raw PE files and filepaths of applications at the moment of execution. The acquired dataset is at least ten folds larger than reported in related works on behavioral malware analysis. Files in the training dataset are labeled by a professional threat intelligence team, utilizing manual and automated reverse engineering tools. We estimate the hybrid classifier's operational utility by collecting an out-of-sample test set three months later from the acquisition of the training set. We report an improved detection rate, above the capabilities of the current state-of-the-art model, especially under low false-positive requirements. Additionally, we uncover a meta-model's ability to identify malicious activity in validation and test sets even if none of the individual models express enough confidence to mark the sample as malevolent. We conclude that the meta-model can learn patterns typical to malicious samples from representation combinations produced by different analysis techniques. We publicly release pre-trained models and anonymized dataset of emulation reports.

While machine learning is currently transforming the field of histopathology, the domain lacks a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models based on essential but complementary quality requirements beyond a mere classification accuracy. In order to fill this gap, we developed a new methodology to extensively evaluate a wide range of classification models, including recent vision transformers, and convolutional neural networks such as: ConvNeXt, ResNet (BiT), Inception, ViT and Swin transformer, with and without supervised or self-supervised pretraining. We thoroughly tested the models on five widely used histopathology datasets containing whole slide images of breast, gastric, and colorectal cancer and developed a novel approach using an image-to-image translation model to assess the robustness of a cancer classification model against stain variations. Further, we extended existing interpretability methods to previously unstudied models and systematically reveal insights of the models' classifications strategies that can be transferred to future model architectures.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

The San Andreas Fault system, known for its frequent seismic activity, provides an extensive dataset for earthquake studies. The region's well-instrumented seismic networks have been crucial in advancing research on earthquake statistics, physics, and subsurface Earth structures. In recent years, earthquake data from California has become increasingly valuable for deep learning applications, such as Generalized Phase Detection (GPD) for phase detection and polarity determination, and PhaseNet for phase arrival-time picking. The continuous accumulation of data, particularly those manually labeled by human analysts, serves as an essential resource for advancing both regional and global deep learning models. To support the continued development of machine learning and data mining studies, we have compiled a unified California Earthquake Event Dataset (CEED) that integrates seismic records from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) and the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC). The dataset includes both automatically and manually determined parameters such as earthquake origin time, source location, P/S phase arrivals, first-motion polarities, and ground motion intensity measurements. The dataset is organized in an event-based format organized by year spanning from 2000 to 2024, facilitating cross-referencing with event catalogs and enabling continuous updates in future years. This comprehensive open-access dataset is designed to support diverse applications including developing deep learning models, creating enhanced catalog products, and research into earthquake processes, fault zone structures, and seismic risks.

We present the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB), a collection of challenging and diverse benchmark datasets for realistic, reproducible, and robust evaluation of machine learning models on temporal graphs. TGB datasets are of large scale, spanning years in duration, incorporate both node and edge-level prediction tasks and cover a diverse set of domains including social, trade, transaction, and transportation networks. For both tasks, we design evaluation protocols based on realistic use-cases. We extensively benchmark each dataset and find that the performance of common models can vary drastically across datasets. In addition, on dynamic node property prediction tasks, we show that simple methods often achieve superior performance compared to existing temporal graph models. We believe that these findings open up opportunities for future research on temporal graphs. Finally, TGB provides an automated machine learning pipeline for reproducible and accessible temporal graph research, including data loading, experiment setup and performance evaluation. TGB will be maintained and updated on a regular basis and welcomes community feedback. TGB datasets, data loaders, example codes, evaluation setup, and leaderboards are publicly available at https://tgb.complexdatalab.com/.

With the continuous and vast increase in the amount of data in our digital world, it has been acknowledged that the number of knowledgeable data scientists can not scale to address these challenges. Thus, there was a crucial need for automating the process of building good machine learning models. In the last few years, several techniques and frameworks have been introduced to tackle the challenge of automating the process of Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyper-parameter tuning (CASH) in the machine learning domain. The main aim of these techniques is to reduce the role of the human in the loop and fill the gap for non-expert machine learning users by playing the role of the domain expert. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey for the state-of-the-art efforts in tackling the CASH problem. In addition, we highlight the research work of automating the other steps of the full complex machine learning pipeline (AutoML) from data understanding till model deployment. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive coverage for the various tools and frameworks that have been introduced in this domain. Finally, we discuss some of the research directions and open challenges that need to be addressed in order to achieve the vision and goals of the AutoML process.

Benchmark datasets have a significant impact on accelerating research in programming language tasks. In this paper, we introduce CodeXGLUE, a benchmark dataset to foster machine learning research for program understanding and generation. CodeXGLUE includes a collection of 10 tasks across 14 datasets and a platform for model evaluation and comparison. CodeXGLUE also features three baseline systems, including the BERT-style, GPT-style, and Encoder-Decoder models, to make it easy for researchers to use the platform. The availability of such data and baselines can help the development and validation of new methods that can be applied to various program understanding and generation problems.

In this study, we introduce a novel platform Resource-Aware AutoML (RA-AutoML) which enables flexible and generalized algorithms to build machine learning models subjected to multiple objectives, as well as resource and hard-ware constraints. RA-AutoML intelligently conducts Hyper-Parameter Search(HPS) as well as Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to build models optimizing predefined objectives. RA-AutoML is a versatile framework that allows user to prescribe many resource/hardware constraints along with objectives demanded by the problem at hand or business requirements. At its core, RA-AutoML relies on our in-house search-engine algorithm,MOBOGA, which combines a modified constraint-aware Bayesian Optimization and Genetic Algorithm to construct Pareto optimal candidates. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 dataset shows very good accuracy compared to results obtained by state-of-art neural network models, while subjected to resource constraints in the form of model size.

From crop mapping to flood detection, machine learning in remote sensing has a wide range of societally beneficial applications. The commonalities between remote sensing data in these applications present an opportunity for pretrained machine learning models tailored to remote sensing to reduce the labeled data and effort required to solve individual tasks. However, such models must be: (i) flexible enough to ingest input data of varying sensor modalities and shapes (i.e., of varying spatial and temporal dimensions), and (ii) able to model Earth surface phenomena of varying scales and types. To solve this gap, we present Galileo, a family of pretrained remote sensing models designed to flexibly process multimodal remote sensing data. We also introduce a novel and highly effective self-supervised learning approach to learn both large- and small-scale features, a challenge not addressed by previous models. Our Galileo models obtain state-of-the-art results across diverse remote sensing tasks.

High-frequency trading (HFT) represents a pivotal and intensely competitive domain within the financial markets. The velocity and accuracy of data processing exert a direct influence on profitability, underscoring the significance of this field. The objective of this work is to optimise the real-time processing of data in high-frequency trading algorithms. The dynamic feature selection mechanism is responsible for monitoring and analysing market data in real time through clustering and feature weight analysis, with the objective of automatically selecting the most relevant features. This process employs an adaptive feature extraction method, which enables the system to respond and adjust its feature set in a timely manner when the data input changes, thus ensuring the efficient utilisation of data. The lightweight neural networks are designed in a modular fashion, comprising fast convolutional layers and pruning techniques that facilitate the expeditious completion of data processing and output prediction. In contrast to conventional deep learning models, the neural network architecture has been specifically designed to minimise the number of parameters and computational complexity, thereby markedly reducing the inference time. The experimental results demonstrate that the model is capable of maintaining consistent performance in the context of varying market conditions, thereby illustrating its advantages in terms of processing speed and revenue enhancement.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Recently, pre-trained foundation models have enabled significant advancements in multiple fields. In molecular machine learning, however, where datasets are often hand-curated, and hence typically small, the lack of datasets with labeled features, and codebases to manage those datasets, has hindered the development of foundation models. In this work, we present seven novel datasets categorized by size into three distinct categories: ToyMix, LargeMix and UltraLarge. These datasets push the boundaries in both the scale and the diversity of supervised labels for molecular learning. They cover nearly 100 million molecules and over 3000 sparsely defined tasks, totaling more than 13 billion individual labels of both quantum and biological nature. In comparison, our datasets contain 300 times more data points than the widely used OGB-LSC PCQM4Mv2 dataset, and 13 times more than the quantum-only QM1B dataset. In addition, to support the development of foundational models based on our proposed datasets, we present the Graphium graph machine learning library which simplifies the process of building and training molecular machine learning models for multi-task and multi-level molecular datasets. Finally, we present a range of baseline results as a starting point of multi-task and multi-level training on these datasets. Empirically, we observe that performance on low-resource biological datasets show improvement by also training on large amounts of quantum data. This indicates that there may be potential in multi-task and multi-level training of a foundation model and fine-tuning it to resource-constrained downstream tasks.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is the most popular method for proxying race/ethnicity in voter registration files that do not contain it. This paper benchmarks BISG against a range of previously untested machine learning alternatives, using voter files with self-reported race/ethnicity from California, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. This analysis yields three key findings. First, machine learning consistently outperforms BISG at individual classification of race/ethnicity. Second, BISG and machine learning methods exhibit divergent biases for estimating regional racial composition. Third, the performance of all methods varies substantially across states. These results suggest that pre-trained machine learning models are preferable to BISG for individual classification. Furthermore, mixed results across states underscore the need for researchers to empirically validate their chosen race/ethnicity proxy in their populations of interest.

InterpretML is an open-source Python package which exposes machine learning interpretability algorithms to practitioners and researchers. InterpretML exposes two types of interpretability - glassbox models, which are machine learning models designed for interpretability (ex: linear models, rule lists, generalized additive models), and blackbox explainability techniques for explaining existing systems (ex: Partial Dependence, LIME). The package enables practitioners to easily compare interpretability algorithms by exposing multiple methods under a unified API, and by having a built-in, extensible visualization platform. InterpretML also includes the first implementation of the Explainable Boosting Machine, a powerful, interpretable, glassbox model that can be as accurate as many blackbox models. The MIT licensed source code can be downloaded from github.com/microsoft/interpret.

The detection and identification of induction motor faults using machine learning and signal processing is a valuable approach to avoiding plant disturbances and shutdowns in the context of Industry 4.0. In this work, we present a study on the detection and identification of induction motor faults using machine learning and signal processing with MATLAB Simulink. We developed a model of a three-phase induction motor in MATLAB Simulink to generate healthy and faulty motor data. The data collected included stator currents, rotor currents, input power, slip, rotor speed, and efficiency. We generated four faults in the induction motor: open circuit fault, short circuit fault, overload, and broken rotor bars. We collected a total of 150,000 data points with a 60-40% ratio of healthy to faulty motor data. We applied Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to detect and identify healthy and unhealthy conditions and added a distinctive feature in our data. The generated dataset was trained different machine learning models. On comparing the accuracy of the models on the test set, we concluded that the Decision Tree algorithm performed the best with an accuracy of about 92%. Our study contributes to the literature by providing a valuable approach to fault detection and classification with machine learning models for industrial applications.

Neonatal death is still a concerning reality for underdeveloped and even some developed countries. Worldwide data indicate that 26.693 babies out of 1,000 births die, according to Macro Trades. To reduce this number, early prediction of endangered babies is crucial. Such prediction enables the opportunity to take ample care of the child and mother so that early child death can be avoided. In this context, machine learning was used to determine whether a newborn baby is at risk. To train the predictive model, historical data of 1.4 million newborns was used. Machine learning and deep learning techniques such as logical regression, K-nearest neighbor, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), convolutional neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were implemented using the dataset to identify the most accurate model for predicting neonatal mortality. Among the machine learning algorithms, XGBoost and random forest classifier achieved the best accuracy with 94%, while among the deep learning models, LSTM delivered the highest accuracy with 99%. Therefore, using LSTM appears to be the most suitable approach to predict whether precautionary measures for a child are necessary.

The most popular framework for distributed training of machine learning models is the (synchronous) parameter server (PS). This paradigm consists of n workers, which iteratively compute updates of the model parameters, and a stateful PS, which waits and aggregates all updates to generate a new estimate of model parameters and sends it back to the workers for a new iteration. Transient computation slowdowns or transmission delays can intolerably lengthen the time of each iteration. An efficient way to mitigate this problem is to let the PS wait only for the fastest n-b updates, before generating the new parameters. The slowest b workers are called backup workers. The optimal number b of backup workers depends on the cluster configuration and workload, but also (as we show in this paper) on the hyper-parameters of the learning algorithm and the current stage of the training. We propose DBW, an algorithm that dynamically decides the number of backup workers during the training process to maximize the convergence speed at each iteration. Our experiments show that DBW 1) removes the necessity to tune b by preliminary time-consuming experiments, and 2) makes the training up to a factor 3 faster than the optimal static configuration.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

PROTACs are a promising therapeutic modality that harnesses the cell's built-in degradation machinery to degrade specific proteins. Despite their potential, developing new PROTACs is challenging and requires significant domain expertise, time, and cost. Meanwhile, machine learning has transformed drug design and development. In this work, we present a strategy for curating open-source PROTAC data and an open-source deep learning tool for predicting the degradation activity of novel PROTAC molecules. The curated dataset incorporates important information such as pDC_{50}, D_{max}, E3 ligase type, POI amino acid sequence, and experimental cell type. Our model architecture leverages learned embeddings from pretrained machine learning models, in particular for encoding protein sequences and cell type information. We assessed the quality of the curated data and the generalization ability of our model architecture against new PROTACs and targets via three tailored studies, which we recommend other researchers to use in evaluating their degradation activity models. In each study, three models predict protein degradation in a majority vote setting, reaching a top test accuracy of 82.6% and 0.848 ROC AUC, and a test accuracy of 61% and 0.615 ROC AUC when generalizing to novel protein targets. Our results are not only comparable to state-of-the-art models for protein degradation prediction, but also part of an open-source implementation which is easily reproducible and less computationally complex than existing approaches.

Machine unlearning empowers individuals with the `right to be forgotten' by removing their private or sensitive information encoded in machine learning models. However, it remains uncertain whether MU can be effectively applied to Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), particularly in scenarios of forgetting the leaked visual data of concepts. To overcome the challenge, we propose an efficient method, Single Image Unlearning (SIU), to unlearn the visual recognition of a concept by fine-tuning a single associated image for few steps. SIU consists of two key aspects: (i) Constructing Multifaceted fine-tuning data. We introduce four targets, based on which we construct fine-tuning data for the concepts to be forgotten; (ii) Jointly training loss. To synchronously forget the visual recognition of concepts and preserve the utility of MLLMs, we fine-tune MLLMs through a novel Dual Masked KL-divergence Loss combined with Cross Entropy loss. Alongside our method, we establish MMUBench, a new benchmark for MU in MLLMs and introduce a collection of metrics for its evaluation. Experimental results on MMUBench show that SIU completely surpasses the performance of existing methods. Furthermore, we surprisingly find that SIU can avoid invasive membership inference attacks and jailbreak attacks. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to explore MU in MLLMs. We will release the code and benchmark in the near future.

Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) is at the core of training modern large machine learning models, providing a scheme for learning powerful representations that can be used in a variety of downstream tasks. However, SSL strategies must be adapted to the type of training data and downstream tasks required. We propose RS3L ("Re-simulation-based self-supervised representation learning"), a novel simulation-based SSL strategy that employs a method of re-simulation to drive data augmentation for contrastive learning in the physical sciences, particularly, in fields that rely on stochastic simulators. By intervening in the middle of the simulation process and re-running simulation components downstream of the intervention, we generate multiple realizations of an event, thus producing a set of augmentations covering all physics-driven variations available in the simulator. Using experiments from high-energy physics, we explore how this strategy may enable the development of a foundation model; we show how RS3L pre-training enables powerful performance in downstream tasks such as discrimination of a variety of objects and uncertainty mitigation. In addition to our results, we make the RS3L dataset publicly available for further studies on how to improve SSL strategies.

As the most basic application and implementation of deep learning, image classification has grown in popularity. Various datasets are provided by renowned data science communities for benchmarking machine learning algorithms and pre-trained models. The ASSIRA Cats & Dogs dataset is one of them and is being used in this research for its overall acceptance and benchmark standards. A comparison of various pre-trained models is demonstrated by using different types of optimizers and loss functions. Hyper-parameters are changed to gain the best result from a model. By applying this approach, we have got higher accuracy without major changes in the training model. To run the experiment, we used three different computer architectures: a laptop equipped with NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1070, a laptop equipped with NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080Ti, and a desktop equipped with NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090. The acquired results demonstrate supremacy in terms of accuracy over the previously done experiments on this dataset. From this experiment, the highest accuracy which is 99.65% is gained using the NASNet Large.

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have brought about a plethora of new challenges in terms of governance and regulation. AI systems are being integrated into various industries and sectors, creating a demand from decision-makers to possess a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the capabilities and limitations of these systems. One critical aspect of this demand is the ability to explain the results of machine learning models, which is crucial to promoting transparency and trust in AI systems, as well as fundamental in helping machine learning models to be trained ethically. In this paper, we present novel metrics to quantify the degree of which AI model predictions can be easily explainable by its features. Our metrics summarize different aspects of explainability into scalars, providing a more comprehensive understanding of model predictions and facilitating communication between decision-makers and stakeholders, thereby increasing the overall transparency and accountability of AI systems.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.

Machine learning techniques are becoming a fundamental tool for scientific and engineering progress. These techniques are applied in contexts as diverse as astronomy and spam filtering. However, correctly applying these techniques requires careful engineering. Much attention has been paid to the technical potential; relatively little attention has been paid to the software engineering process required to bring research-based machine learning techniques into practical utility. Technology companies have supported the engineering community through machine learning frameworks such as TensorFLow and PyTorch, but the details of how to engineer complex machine learning models in these frameworks have remained hidden. To promote best practices within the engineering community, academic institutions and Google have partnered to launch a Special Interest Group on Machine Learning Models (SIGMODELS) whose goal is to develop exemplary implementations of prominent machine learning models in community locations such as the TensorFlow Model Garden (TFMG). The purpose of this report is to define a process for reproducing a state-of-the-art machine learning model at a level of quality suitable for inclusion in the TFMG. We define the engineering process and elaborate on each step, from paper analysis to model release. We report on our experiences implementing the YOLO model family with a team of 26 student researchers, share the tools we developed, and describe the lessons we learned along the way.

With increasingly more data and computation involved in their training, machine learning models constitute valuable intellectual property. This has spurred interest in model stealing, which is made more practical by advances in learning with partial, little, or no supervision. Existing defenses focus on inserting unique watermarks in a model's decision surface, but this is insufficient: the watermarks are not sampled from the training distribution and thus are not always preserved during model stealing. In this paper, we make the key observation that knowledge contained in the stolen model's training set is what is common to all stolen copies. The adversary's goal, irrespective of the attack employed, is always to extract this knowledge or its by-products. This gives the original model's owner a strong advantage over the adversary: model owners have access to the original training data. We thus introduce dataset inference, the process of identifying whether a suspected model copy has private knowledge from the original model's dataset, as a defense against model stealing. We develop an approach for dataset inference that combines statistical testing with the ability to estimate the distance of multiple data points to the decision boundary. Our experiments on CIFAR10, SVHN, CIFAR100 and ImageNet show that model owners can claim with confidence greater than 99% that their model (or dataset as a matter of fact) was stolen, despite only exposing 50 of the stolen model's training points. Dataset inference defends against state-of-the-art attacks even when the adversary is adaptive. Unlike prior work, it does not require retraining or overfitting the defended model.

A suitable feature representation that can both preserve the data intrinsic information and reduce data complexity and dimensionality is key to the performance of machine learning models. Deeply rooted in algebraic topology, persistent homology (PH) provides a delicate balance between data simplification and intrinsic structure characterization, and has been applied to various areas successfully. However, the combination of PH and machine learning has been hindered greatly by three challenges, namely topological representation of data, PH-based distance measurements or metrics, and PH-based feature representation. With the development of topological data analysis, progresses have been made on all these three problems, but widely scattered in different literatures. In this paper, we provide a systematical review of PH and PH-based supervised and unsupervised models from a computational perspective. Our emphasizes are the recent development of mathematical models and tools, including PH softwares and PH-based functions, feature representations, kernels, and similarity models. Essentially, this paper can work as a roadmap for the practical application of PH-based machine learning tools. Further, we consider different topological feature representations in different machine learning models, and investigate their impacts on the protein secondary structure classification.

Background: Human Emotion Recognition (HER) has been a popular field of study in the past years. Despite the great progresses made so far, relatively little attention has been paid to the use of HER in autism. People with autism are known to face problems with daily social communication and the prototypical interpretation of emotional responses, which are most frequently exerted via facial expressions. This poses significant practical challenges to the application of regular HER systems, which are normally developed for and by neurotypical people. Objective: This study reviews the literature on the use of HER systems in autism, particularly with respect to sensing technologies and machine learning methods, as to identify existing barriers and possible future directions. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of articles published between January 2011 and June 2023 according to the 2020 PRISMA guidelines. Manuscripts were identified through searching Web of Science and Scopus databases. Manuscripts were included when related to emotion recognition, used sensors and machine learning techniques, and involved children with autism, young, or adults. Results: The search yielded 346 articles. A total of 65 publications met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Conclusions: Studies predominantly used facial expression techniques as the emotion recognition method. Consequently, video cameras were the most widely used devices across studies, although a growing trend in the use of physiological sensors was observed lately. Happiness, sadness, anger, fear, disgust, and surprise were most frequently addressed. Classical supervised machine learning techniques were primarily used at the expense of unsupervised approaches or more recent deep learning models.

We introduce a new visual-interactive tool: Explainable Labeling Assistant (XLabel) that takes an explainable machine learning approach to data labeling. The main component of XLabel is the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a predictive model that can calculate the contribution of each input feature towards the final prediction. As a case study, we use XLabel to predict the labels of four non-communicable diseases (NCDs): diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidemia. We demonstrate that EBM is an excellent choice of predictive model by comparing it against a rule-based and four other machine learning models. By performing 5-fold cross-validation on 427 medical records, EBM's prediction accuracy, precision, and F1-score are greater than 0.95 in all four NCDs. It performed as well as two black-box models and outperformed the other models in these metrics. In an additional experiment, when 40% of the records were intentionally mislabeled, EBM could recall the correct labels of more than 90% of these records.

The availability of representative datasets is an essential prerequisite for many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, in real life applications these models often encounter scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. There are various reasons for the absence of sufficient data, ranging from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable usage of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is still a tremendous challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches. Knowledge augmented machine learning approaches offer the possibility of compensating for deficiencies, errors, or ambiguities in the data, thus increasing the generalization capability of the applied models. Even more, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-driven models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories knowledge integration, extraction and conformity. In particular, we address the application of the presented methods in the field of autonomous driving.

The characterization and analysis of light curves are vital for understanding the physical and rotational properties of artificial space objects such as satellites, rocket stages, and space debris. This paper introduces the Light Curve Dataset Creator (LCDC), a Python-based toolkit designed to facilitate the preprocessing, analysis, and machine learning applications of light curve data. LCDC enables seamless integration with publicly available datasets, such as the newly introduced Mini Mega Tortora (MMT) database. Moreover, it offers data filtering, transformation, as well as feature extraction tooling. To demonstrate the toolkit's capabilities, we created the first standardized dataset for rocket body classification, RoBo6, which was used to train and evaluate several benchmark machine learning models, addressing the lack of reproducibility and comparability in recent studies. Furthermore, the toolkit enables advanced scientific analyses, such as surface characterization of the Atlas 2AS Centaur and the rotational dynamics of the Delta 4 rocket body, by streamlining data preprocessing, feature extraction, and visualization. These use cases highlight LCDC's potential to advance space debris characterization and promote sustainable space exploration. Additionally, they highlight the toolkit's ability to enable AI-focused research within the space debris community.

In this work, we address the problem of automating quantum variational machine learning. We develop a multi-locality parallelizable search algorithm, called MUSE, to find the initial points and the sets of parameters that achieve the best performance for quantum variational circuit learning. Simulations with five real-world classification datasets indicate that on average, MUSE improves the detection accuracy of quantum variational classifiers 2.3 times with respect to the observed lowest scores. Moreover, when applied to two real-world regression datasets, MUSE improves the quality of the predictions from negative coefficients of determination to positive ones. Furthermore, the classification and regression scores of the quantum variational models trained with MUSE are on par with the classical counterparts.

Every human has their own name, a fundamental aspect of their identity and cultural heritage. The name often conveys a wealth of information, including details about an individual's background, ethnicity, and, especially, their gender. By detecting gender through the analysis of names, researchers can unlock valuable insights into linguistic patterns and cultural norms, which can be applied to practical applications. Hence, this work presents a novel dataset for Japanese name gender detection comprising 64,139 full names in romaji, hiragana, and kanji forms, along with their biological genders. Moreover, we propose Gendec, a framework for gender detection from Japanese names that leverages diverse approaches, including traditional machine learning techniques or cutting-edge transfer learning models, to predict the gender associated with Japanese names accurately. Through a thorough investigation, the proposed framework is expected to be effective and serve potential applications in various domains.

Peer assessment has been widely applied across diverse academic fields over the last few decades and has demonstrated its effectiveness. However, the advantages of peer assessment can only be achieved with high-quality peer reviews. Previous studies have found that high-quality review comments usually comprise several features (e.g., contain suggestions, mention problems, use a positive tone). Thus, researchers have attempted to evaluate peer-review comments by detecting different features using various machine learning and deep learning models. However, there is no single study that investigates using a multi-task learning (MTL) model to detect multiple features simultaneously. This paper presents two MTL models for evaluating peer-review comments by leveraging the state-of-the-art pre-trained language representation models BERT and DistilBERT. Our results demonstrate that BERT-based models significantly outperform previous GloVe-based methods by around 6% in F1-score on tasks of detecting a single feature, and MTL further improves performance while reducing model size.

Machine learning is a general-purpose technology holding promises for many interdisciplinary research problems. However, significant barriers exist in crossing disciplinary boundaries when most machine learning tools are developed in different areas separately. We present Pykale - a Python library for knowledge-aware machine learning on graphs, images, texts, and videos to enable and accelerate interdisciplinary research. We formulate new green machine learning guidelines based on standard software engineering practices and propose a novel pipeline-based application programming interface (API). PyKale focuses on leveraging knowledge from multiple sources for accurate and interpretable prediction, thus supporting multimodal learning and transfer learning (particularly domain adaptation) with latest deep learning and dimensionality reduction models. We build PyKale on PyTorch and leverage the rich PyTorch ecosystem. Our pipeline-based API design enforces standardization and minimalism, embracing green machine learning concepts via reducing repetitions and redundancy, reusing existing resources, and recycling learning models across areas. We demonstrate its interdisciplinary nature via examples in bioinformatics, knowledge graph, image/video recognition, and medical imaging.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

Due to their high predictive performance and flexibility, machine learning models are an appropriate and efficient tool for ecologists. However, implementing a machine learning model is not yet a trivial task and may seem intimidating to ecologists with no previous experience in this area. Here we provide a series of tips to help ecologists in implementing machine learning models. We focus on classification problems as many ecological studies aim to assign data into predefined classes such as ecological states or biological entities. Each of the nine tips identifies a common error, trap or challenge in developing machine learning models and provides recommendations to facilitate their use in ecological studies.

Aiming to train and deploy predictive models, organizations collect large amounts of detailed client data, risking the exposure of private information in the event of a breach. To mitigate this, policymakers increasingly demand compliance with the data minimization (DM) principle, restricting data collection to only that data which is relevant and necessary for the task. Despite regulatory pressure, the problem of deploying machine learning models that obey DM has so far received little attention. In this work, we address this challenge in a comprehensive manner. We propose a novel vertical DM (vDM) workflow based on data generalization, which by design ensures that no full-resolution client data is collected during training and deployment of models, benefiting client privacy by reducing the attack surface in case of a breach. We formalize and study the corresponding problem of finding generalizations that both maximize data utility and minimize empirical privacy risk, which we quantify by introducing a diverse set of policy-aligned adversarial scenarios. Finally, we propose a range of baseline vDM algorithms, as well as Privacy-aware Tree (PAT), an especially effective vDM algorithm that outperforms all baselines across several settings. We plan to release our code as a publicly available library, helping advance the standardization of DM for machine learning. Overall, we believe our work can help lay the foundation for further exploration and adoption of DM principles in real-world applications.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Battery degradation remains a pivotal concern in the energy storage domain, with machine learning emerging as a potent tool to drive forward insights and solutions. However, this intersection of electrochemical science and machine learning poses complex challenges. Machine learning experts often grapple with the intricacies of battery science, while battery researchers face hurdles in adapting intricate models tailored to specific datasets. Beyond this, a cohesive standard for battery degradation modeling, inclusive of data formats and evaluative benchmarks, is conspicuously absent. Recognizing these impediments, we present BatteryML - a one-step, all-encompass, and open-source platform designed to unify data preprocessing, feature extraction, and the implementation of both traditional and state-of-the-art models. This streamlined approach promises to enhance the practicality and efficiency of research applications. BatteryML seeks to fill this void, fostering an environment where experts from diverse specializations can collaboratively contribute, thus elevating the collective understanding and advancement of battery research.The code for our project is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/microsoft/BatteryML.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine learning based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful solution to the modern challenges in accelerator physics. However, the limited availability of beam time, the computational cost of simulations, and the high-dimensionality of optimisation problems pose significant challenges in generating the required data for training state-of-the-art machine learning models. In this work, we introduce Cheetah, a PyTorch-based high-speed differentiable linear-beam dynamics code. Cheetah enables the fast collection of large data sets by reducing computation times by multiple orders of magnitude and facilitates efficient gradient-based optimisation for accelerator tuning and system identification. This positions Cheetah as a user-friendly, readily extensible tool that integrates seamlessly with widely adopted machine learning tools. We showcase the utility of Cheetah through five examples, including reinforcement learning training, gradient-based beamline tuning, gradient-based system identification, physics-informed Bayesian optimisation priors, and modular neural network surrogate modelling of space charge effects. The use of such a high-speed differentiable simulation code will simplify the development of machine learning-based methods for particle accelerators and fast-track their integration into everyday operations of accelerator facilities.

Reverse derivative categories (RDCs) have recently been shown to be a suitable semantic framework for studying machine learning algorithms. Whereas emphasis has been put on training methodologies, less attention has been devoted to particular model classes: the concrete categories whose morphisms represent machine learning models. In this paper we study presentations by generators and equations of classes of RDCs. In particular, we propose polynomial circuits as a suitable machine learning model. We give an axiomatisation for these circuits and prove a functional completeness result. Finally, we discuss the use of polynomial circuits over specific semirings to perform machine learning with discrete values.

High-quality and consistent annotations are fundamental to the successful development of robust machine learning models. Traditional data annotation methods are resource-intensive and inefficient, often leading to a reliance on third-party annotators who are not the domain experts. Hard samples, which are usually the most informative for model training, tend to be difficult to label accurately and consistently without business context. These can arise unpredictably during the annotation process, requiring a variable number of iterations and rounds of feedback, leading to unforeseen expenses and time commitments to guarantee quality. We posit that more direct involvement of domain experts, using a human-in-the-loop system, can resolve many of these practical challenges. We propose a novel framework we call Video Annotator (VA) for annotating, managing, and iterating on video classification datasets. Our approach offers a new paradigm for an end-user-centered model development process, enhancing the efficiency, usability, and effectiveness of video classifiers. Uniquely, VA allows for a continuous annotation process, seamlessly integrating data collection and model training. We leverage the zero-shot capabilities of vision-language foundation models combined with active learning techniques, and demonstrate that VA enables the efficient creation of high-quality models. VA achieves a median 6.8 point improvement in Average Precision relative to the most competitive baseline across a wide-ranging assortment of tasks. We release a dataset with 153k labels across 56 video understanding tasks annotated by three professional video editors using VA, and also release code to replicate our experiments at: http://github.com/netflix/videoannotator.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

To address the interpretability challenge in machine learning (ML) systems, counterfactual explanations (CEs) have emerged as a promising solution. CEs are unique as they provide workable suggestions to users, in addition to explaining why a certain outcome was predicted. The application of CEs encounters two main challenges: general user preferences and variable ML systems. User preferences tend to be general rather than specific, and CEs need to be adaptable to variable ML models while maintaining robustness even as these models change. Facing these challenges, we present a solution rooted in validated general user preferences, which are derived from thorough user research. We map these preferences to the properties of CEs. Additionally, we introduce a novel method, Tree-based Conditions Optional Links (T-COL), which incorporates two optional structures and multiple condition groups for generating CEs adaptable to general user preferences. Meanwhile, we employ T-COL to enhance the robustness of CEs with specific conditions, making them more valid even when the ML model is replaced. Our experimental comparisons under different user preferences show that T-COL outperforms all baselines, including Large Language Models which are shown to be able to generate counterfactuals.

Machine learning based surrogate models offer researchers powerful tools for accelerating simulation-based workflows. However, as standard datasets in this space often cover small classes of physical behavior, it can be difficult to evaluate the efficacy of new approaches. To address this gap, we introduce the Well: a large-scale collection of datasets containing numerical simulations of a wide variety of spatiotemporal physical systems. The Well draws from domain experts and numerical software developers to provide 15TB of data across 16 datasets covering diverse domains such as biological systems, fluid dynamics, acoustic scattering, as well as magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of extra-galactic fluids or supernova explosions. These datasets can be used individually or as part of a broader benchmark suite. To facilitate usage of the Well, we provide a unified PyTorch interface for training and evaluating models. We demonstrate the function of this library by introducing example baselines that highlight the new challenges posed by the complex dynamics of the Well. The code and data is available at https://github.com/PolymathicAI/the_well.

Progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been hindered by a lack of data on key environmental and socioeconomic indicators, which historically have come from ground surveys with sparse temporal and spatial coverage. Recent advances in machine learning have made it possible to utilize abundant, frequently-updated, and globally available data, such as from satellites or social media, to provide insights into progress toward SDGs. Despite promising early results, approaches to using such data for SDG measurement thus far have largely evaluated on different datasets or used inconsistent evaluation metrics, making it hard to understand whether performance is improving and where additional research would be most fruitful. Furthermore, processing satellite and ground survey data requires domain knowledge that many in the machine learning community lack. In this paper, we introduce SustainBench, a collection of 15 benchmark tasks across 7 SDGs, including tasks related to economic development, agriculture, health, education, water and sanitation, climate action, and life on land. Datasets for 11 of the 15 tasks are released publicly for the first time. Our goals for SustainBench are to (1) lower the barriers to entry for the machine learning community to contribute to measuring and achieving the SDGs; (2) provide standard benchmarks for evaluating machine learning models on tasks across a variety of SDGs; and (3) encourage the development of novel machine learning methods where improved model performance facilitates progress towards the SDGs.

The growing capability and accessibility of machine learning has led to its application to many real-world domains and data about people. Despite the benefits algorithmic systems may bring, models can reflect, inject, or exacerbate implicit and explicit societal biases into their outputs, disadvantaging certain demographic subgroups. Discovering which biases a machine learning model has introduced is a great challenge, due to the numerous definitions of fairness and the large number of potentially impacted subgroups. We present FairVis, a mixed-initiative visual analytics system that integrates a novel subgroup discovery technique for users to audit the fairness of machine learning models. Through FairVis, users can apply domain knowledge to generate and investigate known subgroups, and explore suggested and similar subgroups. FairVis' coordinated views enable users to explore a high-level overview of subgroup performance and subsequently drill down into detailed investigation of specific subgroups. We show how FairVis helps to discover biases in two real datasets used in predicting income and recidivism. As a visual analytics system devoted to discovering bias in machine learning, FairVis demonstrates how interactive visualization may help data scientists and the general public understand and create more equitable algorithmic systems.