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SubscribeMachine learning-driven Anomaly Detection and Forecasting for Euclid Space Telescope Operations
State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.
Learned Adaptive Kernels for High-Fidelity Image Downscaling
Image downscaling is a fundamental operation in image processing, crucial for adapting high-resolution content to various display and storage constraints. While classic methods often introduce blurring or aliasing, recent learning-based approaches offer improved adaptivity. However, achieving maximal fidelity against ground-truth low-resolution (LR) images, particularly by accounting for channel-specific characteristics, remains an open challenge. This paper introduces ADK-Net (Adaptive Downscaling Kernel Network), a novel deep convolutional neural network framework for high-fidelity supervised image downscaling. ADK-Net explicitly addresses channel interdependencies by learning to predict spatially-varying, adaptive resampling kernels independently for each pixel and uniquely for each color channel (RGB). The architecture employs a hierarchical design featuring a ResNet-based feature extractor and parallel channel-specific kernel generators, themselves composed of ResNet-based trunk and branch sub-modules, enabling fine-grained kernel prediction. Trained end-to-end using an L1 reconstruction loss against ground-truth LR data, ADK-Net effectively learns the target downscaling transformation. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on standard benchmarks, including the RealSR dataset, demonstrate that ADK-Net establishes a new state-of-the-art in supervised image downscaling, yielding significant improvements in PSNR and SSIM metrics compared to existing learning-based and traditional methods.
Segregation Dynamics with Reinforcement Learning and Agent Based Modeling
Societies are complex. Properties of social systems can be explained by the interplay and weaving of individual actions. Incentives are key to understand people's choices and decisions. For instance, individual preferences of where to live may lead to the emergence of social segregation. In this paper, we combine Reinforcement Learning (RL) with Agent Based Models (ABM) in order to address the self-organizing dynamics of social segregation and explore the space of possibilities that emerge from considering different types of incentives. Our model promotes the creation of interdependencies and interactions among multiple agents of two different kinds that want to segregate from each other. For this purpose, agents use Deep Q-Networks to make decisions based on the rules of the Schelling Segregation model and the Predator-Prey model. Despite the segregation incentive, our experiments show that spatial integration can be achieved by establishing interdependencies among agents of different kinds. They also reveal that segregated areas are more probable to host older people than diverse areas, which attract younger ones. Through this work, we show that the combination of RL and ABMs can create an artificial environment for policy makers to observe potential and existing behaviors associated to incentives.
End-to-end Lyrics Alignment for Polyphonic Music Using an Audio-to-Character Recognition Model
Time-aligned lyrics can enrich the music listening experience by enabling karaoke, text-based song retrieval and intra-song navigation, and other applications. Compared to text-to-speech alignment, lyrics alignment remains highly challenging, despite many attempts to combine numerous sub-modules including vocal separation and detection in an effort to break down the problem. Furthermore, training required fine-grained annotations to be available in some form. Here, we present a novel system based on a modified Wave-U-Net architecture, which predicts character probabilities directly from raw audio using learnt multi-scale representations of the various signal components. There are no sub-modules whose interdependencies need to be optimized. Our training procedure is designed to work with weak, line-level annotations available in the real world. With a mean alignment error of 0.35s on a standard dataset our system outperforms the state-of-the-art by an order of magnitude.
Roman Numeral Analysis with Graph Neural Networks: Onset-wise Predictions from Note-wise Features
Roman Numeral analysis is the important task of identifying chords and their functional context in pieces of tonal music. This paper presents a new approach to automatic Roman Numeral analysis in symbolic music. While existing techniques rely on an intermediate lossy representation of the score, we propose a new method based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that enable the direct description and processing of each individual note in the score. The proposed architecture can leverage notewise features and interdependencies between notes but yield onset-wise representation by virtue of our novel edge contraction algorithm. Our results demonstrate that ChordGNN outperforms existing state-of-the-art models, achieving higher accuracy in Roman Numeral analysis on the reference datasets. In addition, we investigate variants of our model using proposed techniques such as NADE, and post-processing of the chord predictions. The full source code for this work is available at https://github.com/manoskary/chordgnn
Evaluation of Latent Space Disentanglement in the Presence of Interdependent Attributes
Controllable music generation with deep generative models has become increasingly reliant on disentanglement learning techniques. However, current disentanglement metrics, such as mutual information gap (MIG), are often inadequate and misleading when used for evaluating latent representations in the presence of interdependent semantic attributes often encountered in real-world music datasets. In this work, we propose a dependency-aware information metric as a drop-in replacement for MIG that accounts for the inherent relationship between semantic attributes.
Constraining Linear-chain CRFs to Regular Languages
A major challenge in structured prediction is to represent the interdependencies within output structures. When outputs are structured as sequences, linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) are a widely used model class which can learn local dependencies in the output. However, the CRF's Markov assumption makes it impossible for CRFs to represent distributions with nonlocal dependencies, and standard CRFs are unable to respect nonlocal constraints of the data (such as global arity constraints on output labels). We present a generalization of CRFs that can enforce a broad class of constraints, including nonlocal ones, by specifying the space of possible output structures as a regular language L. The resulting regular-constrained CRF (RegCCRF) has the same formal properties as a standard CRF, but assigns zero probability to all label sequences not in L. Notably, RegCCRFs can incorporate their constraints during training, while related models only enforce constraints during decoding. We prove that constrained training is never worse than constrained decoding, and show empirically that it can be substantially better in practice. Additionally, we demonstrate a practical benefit on downstream tasks by incorporating a RegCCRF into a deep neural model for semantic role labeling, exceeding state-of-the-art results on a standard dataset.
A Comprehensive Survey of Evaluation Techniques for Recommendation Systems
The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.
ToolHop: A Query-Driven Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models in Multi-Hop Tool Use
Effective evaluation of multi-hop tool use is critical for analyzing the understanding, reasoning, and function-calling capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, progress has been hindered by a lack of reliable evaluation datasets. To address this, we present ToolHop, a dataset comprising 995 user queries and 3,912 associated tools, specifically designed for rigorous evaluation of multi-hop tool use. ToolHop ensures diverse queries, meaningful interdependencies, locally executable tools, detailed feedback, and verifiable answers through a novel query-driven data construction approach that includes tool creation, document refinement, and code generation. We evaluate 14 LLMs across five model families (i.e., LLaMA3.1, Qwen2.5, Gemini1.5, Claude3.5, and GPT), uncovering significant challenges in handling multi-hop tool-use scenarios. The leading model, GPT-4o, achieves an accuracy of 49.04%, underscoring substantial room for improvement. Further analysis reveals variations in tool-use strategies for various families, offering actionable insights to guide the development of more effective approaches. Code and data can be found in https://huggingface.co/bytedance-research/ToolHop.
Pro3D-Editor : A Progressive-Views Perspective for Consistent and Precise 3D Editing
Text-guided 3D editing aims to precisely edit semantically relevant local 3D regions, which has significant potential for various practical applications ranging from 3D games to film production. Existing methods typically follow a view-indiscriminate paradigm: editing 2D views indiscriminately and projecting them back into 3D space. However, they overlook the different cross-view interdependencies, resulting in inconsistent multi-view editing. In this study, we argue that ideal consistent 3D editing can be achieved through a progressive-views paradigm, which propagates editing semantics from the editing-salient view to other editing-sparse views. Specifically, we propose Pro3D-Editor, a novel framework, which mainly includes Primary-view Sampler, Key-view Render, and Full-view Refiner. Primary-view Sampler dynamically samples and edits the most editing-salient view as the primary view. Key-view Render accurately propagates editing semantics from the primary view to other key views through its Mixture-of-View-Experts Low-Rank Adaption (MoVE-LoRA). Full-view Refiner edits and refines the 3D object based on the edited multi-views. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in editing accuracy and spatial consistency.
Process Reward Model with Q-Value Rankings
Process Reward Modeling (PRM) is critical for complex reasoning and decision-making tasks where the accuracy of intermediate steps significantly influences the overall outcome. Existing PRM approaches, primarily framed as classification problems, employ cross-entropy loss to independently evaluate each step's correctness. This method can lead to suboptimal reward distribution and does not adequately address the interdependencies among steps. To address these limitations, we introduce the Process Q-value Model (PQM), a novel framework that redefines PRM in the context of a Markov Decision Process. PQM optimizes Q-value rankings based on a novel comparative loss function, enhancing the model's ability to capture the intricate dynamics among sequential decisions. This approach provides a more granular and theoretically grounded methodology for process rewards. Our extensive empirical evaluations across various sampling policies, language model backbones, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks show that PQM outperforms classification-based PRMs. The effectiveness of the comparative loss function is highlighted in our comprehensive ablation studies, confirming PQM's practical efficacy and theoretical advantage.
ACR: Attention Collaboration-based Regressor for Arbitrary Two-Hand Reconstruction
Reconstructing two hands from monocular RGB images is challenging due to frequent occlusion and mutual confusion. Existing methods mainly learn an entangled representation to encode two interacting hands, which are incredibly fragile to impaired interaction, such as truncated hands, separate hands, or external occlusion. This paper presents ACR (Attention Collaboration-based Regressor), which makes the first attempt to reconstruct hands in arbitrary scenarios. To achieve this, ACR explicitly mitigates interdependencies between hands and between parts by leveraging center and part-based attention for feature extraction. However, reducing interdependence helps release the input constraint while weakening the mutual reasoning about reconstructing the interacting hands. Thus, based on center attention, ACR also learns cross-hand prior that handle the interacting hands better. We evaluate our method on various types of hand reconstruction datasets. Our method significantly outperforms the best interacting-hand approaches on the InterHand2.6M dataset while yielding comparable performance with the state-of-the-art single-hand methods on the FreiHand dataset. More qualitative results on in-the-wild and hand-object interaction datasets and web images/videos further demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for arbitrary hand reconstruction. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhengdiYu/Arbitrary-Hands-3D-Reconstruction.
Gated Fusion Enhanced Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Movement Prediction
Accurately predicting stock market movements remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent volatility and complex interdependencies among stocks. Although multi-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) hold potential for modeling these relationships, they frequently neglect two key points: the subtle intra-attribute patterns within each stock affecting inter-stock correlation, and the biased attention to coarse- and fine-grained features during multi-scale sampling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MS-HGFN (Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Fusion Network). The model features a hierarchical GNN module that forms dynamic graphs by learning patterns from intra-attributes and features from inter-attributes over different time scales, thus comprehensively capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Additionally, a top-down gating approach facilitates the integration of multi-scale spatio-temporal features, preserving critical coarse- and fine-grained features without too much interference. Experiments utilizing real-world datasets from U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrate that MS-HGFN outperforms both traditional and advanced models, yielding up to a 1.4% improvement in prediction accuracy and enhanced stability in return simulations. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MS-HGFN.
Co-Seg++: Mutual Prompt-Guided Collaborative Learning for Versatile Medical Segmentation
Medical image analysis is critical yet challenged by the need of jointly segmenting organs or tissues, and numerous instances for anatomical structures and tumor microenvironment analysis. Existing studies typically formulated different segmentation tasks in isolation, which overlooks the fundamental interdependencies between these tasks, leading to suboptimal segmentation performance and insufficient medical image understanding. To address this issue, we propose a Co-Seg++ framework for versatile medical segmentation. Specifically, we introduce a novel co-segmentation paradigm, allowing semantic and instance segmentation tasks to mutually enhance each other. We first devise a spatio-temporal prompt encoder (STP-Encoder) to capture long-range spatial and temporal relationships between segmentation regions and image embeddings as prior spatial constraints. Moreover, we devise a multi-task collaborative decoder (MTC-Decoder) that leverages cross-guidance to strengthen the contextual consistency of both tasks, jointly computing semantic and instance segmentation masks. Extensive experiments on diverse CT and histopathology datasets demonstrate that the proposed Co-Seg++ outperforms state-of-the-arts in the semantic, instance, and panoptic segmentation of dental anatomical structures, histopathology tissues, and nuclei instances. The source code is available at https://github.com/xq141839/Co-Seg-Plus.
Dual Mutual Learning Network with Global-local Awareness for RGB-D Salient Object Detection
RGB-D salient object detection (SOD), aiming to highlight prominent regions of a given scene by jointly modeling RGB and depth information, is one of the challenging pixel-level prediction tasks. Recently, the dual-attention mechanism has been devoted to this area due to its ability to strengthen the detection process. However, most existing methods directly fuse attentional cross-modality features under a manual-mandatory fusion paradigm without considering the inherent discrepancy between the RGB and depth, which may lead to a reduction in performance. Moreover, the long-range dependencies derived from global and local information make it difficult to leverage a unified efficient fusion strategy. Hence, in this paper, we propose the GL-DMNet, a novel dual mutual learning network with global-local awareness. Specifically, we present a position mutual fusion module and a channel mutual fusion module to exploit the interdependencies among different modalities in spatial and channel dimensions. Besides, we adopt an efficient decoder based on cascade transformer-infused reconstruction to integrate multi-level fusion features jointly. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed GL-DMNet performs better than 24 RGB-D SOD methods, achieving an average improvement of ~3% across four evaluation metrics compared to the second-best model (S3Net). Codes and results are available at https://github.com/kingkung2016/GL-DMNet.
UDC: A Unified Neural Divide-and-Conquer Framework for Large-Scale Combinatorial Optimization Problems
Single-stage neural combinatorial optimization solvers have achieved near-optimal results on various small-scale combinatorial optimization (CO) problems without requiring expert knowledge. However, these solvers exhibit significant performance degradation when applied to large-scale CO problems. Recently, two-stage neural methods motivated by divide-and-conquer strategies have shown efficiency in addressing large-scale CO problems. Nevertheless, the performance of these methods highly relies on problem-specific heuristics in either the dividing or the conquering procedure, which limits their applicability to general CO problems. Moreover, these methods employ separate training schemes and ignore the interdependencies between the dividing and conquering strategies, often leading to sub-optimal solutions. To tackle these drawbacks, this article develops a unified neural divide-and-conquer framework (i.e., UDC) for solving general large-scale CO problems. UDC offers a Divide-Conquer-Reunion (DCR) training method to eliminate the negative impact of a sub-optimal dividing policy. Employing a high-efficiency Graph Neural Network (GNN) for global instance dividing and a fixed-length sub-path solver for conquering divided sub-problems, the proposed UDC framework demonstrates extensive applicability, achieving superior performance in 10 representative large-scale CO problems. The code is available at https://github.com/CIAM-Group/NCO_code/tree/main/single_objective/UDC-Large-scale-CO-master.
S3O: A Dual-Phase Approach for Reconstructing Dynamic Shape and Skeleton of Articulated Objects from Single Monocular Video
Reconstructing dynamic articulated objects from a singular monocular video is challenging, requiring joint estimation of shape, motion, and camera parameters from limited views. Current methods typically demand extensive computational resources and training time, and require additional human annotations such as predefined parametric models, camera poses, and key points, limiting their generalizability. We propose Synergistic Shape and Skeleton Optimization (S3O), a novel two-phase method that forgoes these prerequisites and efficiently learns parametric models including visible shapes and underlying skeletons. Conventional strategies typically learn all parameters simultaneously, leading to interdependencies where a single incorrect prediction can result in significant errors. In contrast, S3O adopts a phased approach: it first focuses on learning coarse parametric models, then progresses to motion learning and detail addition. This method substantially lowers computational complexity and enhances robustness in reconstruction from limited viewpoints, all without requiring additional annotations. To address the current inadequacies in 3D reconstruction from monocular video benchmarks, we collected the PlanetZoo dataset. Our experimental evaluations on standard benchmarks and the PlanetZoo dataset affirm that S3O provides more accurate 3D reconstruction, and plausible skeletons, and reduces the training time by approximately 60% compared to the state-of-the-art, thus advancing the state of the art in dynamic object reconstruction.
MABFuzz: Multi-Armed Bandit Algorithms for Fuzzing Processors
As the complexities of processors keep increasing, the task of effectively verifying their integrity and security becomes ever more daunting. The intricate web of instructions, microarchitectural features, and interdependencies woven into modern processors pose a formidable challenge for even the most diligent verification and security engineers. To tackle this growing concern, recently, researchers have developed fuzzing techniques explicitly tailored for hardware processors. However, a prevailing issue with these hardware fuzzers is their heavy reliance on static strategies to make decisions in their algorithms. To address this problem, we develop a novel dynamic and adaptive decision-making framework, MABFuzz, that uses multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms to fuzz processors. MABFuzz is agnostic to, and hence, applicable to, any existing hardware fuzzer. In the process of designing MABFuzz, we encounter challenges related to the compatibility of MAB algorithms with fuzzers and maximizing their efficacy for fuzzing. We overcome these challenges by modifying the fuzzing process and tailoring MAB algorithms to accommodate special requirements for hardware fuzzing. We integrate three widely used MAB algorithms in a state-of-the-art hardware fuzzer and evaluate them on three popular RISC-V-based processors. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of MABFuzz to cover a broader spectrum of processors' intricate landscapes and doing so with remarkable efficiency. In particular, MABFuzz achieves up to 308x speedup in detecting vulnerabilities and up to 5x speedup in achieving coverage compared to a state-of-the-art technique.
Image Super-Resolution Using Very Deep Residual Channel Attention Networks
Convolutional neural network (CNN) depth is of crucial importance for image super-resolution (SR). However, we observe that deeper networks for image SR are more difficult to train. The low-resolution inputs and features contain abundant low-frequency information, which is treated equally across channels, hence hindering the representational ability of CNNs. To solve these problems, we propose the very deep residual channel attention networks (RCAN). Specifically, we propose a residual in residual (RIR) structure to form very deep network, which consists of several residual groups with long skip connections. Each residual group contains some residual blocks with short skip connections. Meanwhile, RIR allows abundant low-frequency information to be bypassed through multiple skip connections, making the main network focus on learning high-frequency information. Furthermore, we propose a channel attention mechanism to adaptively rescale channel-wise features by considering interdependencies among channels. Extensive experiments show that our RCAN achieves better accuracy and visual improvements against state-of-the-art methods.
DPoser-X: Diffusion Model as Robust 3D Whole-body Human Pose Prior
We present DPoser-X, a diffusion-based prior model for 3D whole-body human poses. Building a versatile and robust full-body human pose prior remains challenging due to the inherent complexity of articulated human poses and the scarcity of high-quality whole-body pose datasets. To address these limitations, we introduce a Diffusion model as body Pose prior (DPoser) and extend it to DPoser-X for expressive whole-body human pose modeling. Our approach unifies various pose-centric tasks as inverse problems, solving them through variational diffusion sampling. To enhance performance on downstream applications, we introduce a novel truncated timestep scheduling method specifically designed for pose data characteristics. We also propose a masked training mechanism that effectively combines whole-body and part-specific datasets, enabling our model to capture interdependencies between body parts while avoiding overfitting to specific actions. Extensive experiments demonstrate DPoser-X's robustness and versatility across multiple benchmarks for body, hand, face, and full-body pose modeling. Our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives, establishing a new benchmark for whole-body human pose prior modeling.
Generative Regression Based Watch Time Prediction for Short-Video Recommendation
Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.
AutoRev: Automatic Peer Review System for Academic Research Papers
Generating a review for an academic research paper is a complex task that requires a deep understanding of the document's content and the interdependencies between its sections. It demands not only insight into technical details but also an appreciation of the paper's overall coherence and structure. Recent methods have predominantly focused on fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) to address this challenge. However, they often overlook the computational and performance limitations imposed by long input token lengths. To address this, we introduce AutoRev, an Automatic Peer Review System for Academic Research Papers. Our novel framework represents an academic document as a graph, enabling the extraction of the most critical passages that contribute significantly to the review. This graph-based approach demonstrates effectiveness for review generation and is potentially adaptable to various downstream tasks, such as question answering, summarization, and document representation. When applied to review generation, our method outperforms SOTA baselines by an average of 58.72% across all evaluation metrics. We hope that our work will stimulate further research in applying graph-based extraction techniques to other downstream tasks in NLP. We plan to make our code public upon acceptance.
Improving Retrieval-Augmented Generation through Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is extensively utilized to incorporate external, current knowledge into large language models, thereby minimizing hallucinations. A standard RAG pipeline may comprise several components, such as query rewriting, document retrieval, document filtering, and answer generation. However, these components are typically optimized separately through supervised fine-tuning, which can lead to misalignments between the objectives of individual modules and the overarching aim of generating accurate answers in question-answering (QA) tasks. Although recent efforts have explored reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize specific RAG components, these approaches often focus on overly simplistic pipelines with only two components or do not adequately address the complex interdependencies and collaborative interactions among the modules. To overcome these challenges, we propose treating the RAG pipeline as a multi-agent cooperative task, with each component regarded as an RL agent. Specifically, we present MMOA-RAG, a Multi-Module joint Optimization Algorithm for RAG, which employs multi-agent reinforcement learning to harmonize all agents' goals towards a unified reward, such as the F1 score of the final answer. Experiments conducted on various QA datasets demonstrate that MMOA-RAG improves the overall pipeline performance and outperforms existing baselines. Furthermore, comprehensive ablation studies validate the contributions of individual components and the adaptability of MMOA-RAG across different RAG components and datasets. The code of MMOA-RAG is on https://github.com/chenyiqun/MMOA-RAG.
Dynamic graph neural networks for enhanced volatility prediction in financial markets
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.
SurgRAW: Multi-Agent Workflow with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Surgical Intelligence
Integration of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) in surgical intelligence is hindered by hallucinations, domain knowledge gaps, and limited understanding of task interdependencies within surgical scenes, undermining clinical reliability. While recent VLMs demonstrate strong general reasoning and thinking capabilities, they still lack the domain expertise and task-awareness required for precise surgical scene interpretation. Although Chain-of-Thought (CoT) can structure reasoning more effectively, current approaches rely on self-generated CoT steps, which often exacerbate inherent domain gaps and hallucinations. To overcome this, we present SurgRAW, a CoT-driven multi-agent framework that delivers transparent, interpretable insights for most tasks in robotic-assisted surgery. By employing specialized CoT prompts across five tasks: instrument recognition, action recognition, action prediction, patient data extraction, and outcome assessment, SurgRAW mitigates hallucinations through structured, domain-aware reasoning. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is also integrated to external medical knowledge to bridge domain gaps and improve response reliability. Most importantly, a hierarchical agentic system ensures that CoT-embedded VLM agents collaborate effectively while understanding task interdependencies, with a panel discussion mechanism promotes logical consistency. To evaluate our method, we introduce SurgCoTBench, the first reasoning-based dataset with structured frame-level annotations. With comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed SurgRAW with 29.32% accuracy improvement over baseline VLMs on 12 robotic procedures, achieving the state-of-the-art performance and advancing explainable, trustworthy, and autonomous surgical assistance.
COSMOS: A Hybrid Adaptive Optimizer for Memory-Efficient Training of LLMs
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success across various domains, yet their optimization remains a significant challenge due to the complex and high-dimensional loss landscapes they inhabit. While adaptive optimizers such as AdamW are widely used, they suffer from critical limitations, including an inability to capture interdependencies between coordinates and high memory consumption. Subsequent research, exemplified by SOAP, attempts to better capture coordinate interdependence but incurs greater memory overhead, limiting scalability for massive LLMs. An alternative approach aims to reduce memory consumption through low-dimensional projection, but this leads to substantial approximation errors, resulting in less effective optimization (e.g., in terms of per-token efficiency). In this paper, we propose COSMOS, a novel hybrid optimizer that leverages the varying importance of eigensubspaces in the gradient matrix to achieve memory efficiency without compromising optimization performance. The design of COSMOS is motivated by our empirical insights and practical considerations. Specifically, COSMOS applies SOAP to the leading eigensubspace, which captures the primary optimization dynamics, and MUON to the remaining eigensubspace, which is less critical but computationally expensive to handle with SOAP. This hybrid strategy significantly reduces memory consumption while maintaining robust optimization performance, making it particularly suitable for massive LLMs. Numerical experiments on various datasets and transformer architectures are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of COSMOS. Our code is available at https://github.com/lliu606/COSMOS.
Intelligent Sensing-to-Action for Robust Autonomy at the Edge: Opportunities and Challenges
Autonomous edge computing in robotics, smart cities, and autonomous vehicles relies on the seamless integration of sensing, processing, and actuation for real-time decision-making in dynamic environments. At its core is the sensing-to-action loop, which iteratively aligns sensor inputs with computational models to drive adaptive control strategies. These loops can adapt to hyper-local conditions, enhancing resource efficiency and responsiveness, but also face challenges such as resource constraints, synchronization delays in multi-modal data fusion, and the risk of cascading errors in feedback loops. This article explores how proactive, context-aware sensing-to-action and action-to-sensing adaptations can enhance efficiency by dynamically adjusting sensing and computation based on task demands, such as sensing a very limited part of the environment and predicting the rest. By guiding sensing through control actions, action-to-sensing pathways can improve task relevance and resource use, but they also require robust monitoring to prevent cascading errors and maintain reliability. Multi-agent sensing-action loops further extend these capabilities through coordinated sensing and actions across distributed agents, optimizing resource use via collaboration. Additionally, neuromorphic computing, inspired by biological systems, provides an efficient framework for spike-based, event-driven processing that conserves energy, reduces latency, and supports hierarchical control--making it ideal for multi-agent optimization. This article highlights the importance of end-to-end co-design strategies that align algorithmic models with hardware and environmental dynamics and improve cross-layer interdependencies to improve throughput, precision, and adaptability for energy-efficient edge autonomy in complex environments.
Learning from Suboptimal Data in Continuous Control via Auto-Regressive Soft Q-Network
Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control often requires large amounts of online interaction data. Value-based RL methods can mitigate this burden by offering relatively high sample efficiency. Some studies further enhance sample efficiency by incorporating offline demonstration data to "kick-start" training, achieving promising results in continuous control. However, they typically compute the Q-function independently for each action dimension, neglecting interdependencies and making it harder to identify optimal actions when learning from suboptimal data, such as non-expert demonstration and online-collected data during the training process. To address these issues, we propose Auto-Regressive Soft Q-learning (ARSQ), a value-based RL algorithm that models Q-values in a coarse-to-fine, auto-regressive manner. First, ARSQ decomposes the continuous action space into discrete spaces in a coarse-to-fine hierarchy, enhancing sample efficiency for fine-grained continuous control tasks. Next, it auto-regressively predicts dimensional action advantages within each decision step, enabling more effective decision-making in continuous control tasks. We evaluate ARSQ on two continuous control benchmarks, RLBench and D4RL, integrating demonstration data into online training. On D4RL, which includes non-expert demonstrations, ARSQ achieves an average 1.62times performance improvement over SOTA value-based baseline. On RLBench, which incorporates expert demonstrations, ARSQ surpasses various baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in learning from suboptimal online-collected data. Project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/ar-soft-q
Dual Frequency Branch Framework with Reconstructed Sliding Windows Attention for AI-Generated Image Detection
The rapid advancement of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and diffusion models has enabled the creation of highly realistic synthetic images, presenting significant societal risks, such as misinformation and deception. As a result, detecting AI-generated images has emerged as a critical challenge. Existing researches emphasize extracting fine-grained features to enhance detector generalization, yet they often lack consideration for the importance and interdependencies of internal elements within local regions and are limited to a single frequency domain, hindering the capture of general forgery traces. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we first utilize a sliding window to restrict the attention mechanism to a local window, and reconstruct the features within the window to model the relationships between neighboring internal elements within the local region. Then, we design a dual frequency domain branch framework consisting of four frequency domain subbands of DWT and the phase part of FFT to enrich the extraction of local forgery features from different perspectives. Through feature enrichment of dual frequency domain branches and fine-grained feature extraction of reconstruction sliding window attention, our method achieves superior generalization detection capabilities on both GAN and diffusion model-based generative images. Evaluated on diverse datasets comprising images from 65 distinct generative models, our approach achieves a 2.13\% improvement in detection accuracy over state-of-the-art methods.
ExecRepoBench: Multi-level Executable Code Completion Evaluation
Code completion has become an essential tool for daily software development. Existing evaluation benchmarks often employ static methods that do not fully capture the dynamic nature of real-world coding environments and face significant challenges, including limited context length, reliance on superficial evaluation metrics, and potential overfitting to training datasets. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for enhancing code completion in software development through the creation of a repository-level benchmark ExecRepoBench and the instruction corpora Repo-Instruct, aim at improving the functionality of open-source large language models (LLMs) in real-world coding scenarios that involve complex interdependencies across multiple files. ExecRepoBench includes 1.2K samples from active Python repositories. Plus, we present a multi-level grammar-based completion methodology conditioned on the abstract syntax tree to mask code fragments at various logical units (e.g. statements, expressions, and functions). Then, we fine-tune the open-source LLM with 7B parameters on Repo-Instruct to produce a strong code completion baseline model Qwen2.5-Coder-Instruct-C based on the open-source model. Qwen2.5-Coder-Instruct-C is rigorously evaluated against existing benchmarks, including MultiPL-E and ExecRepoBench, which consistently outperforms prior baselines across all programming languages. The deployment of can be used as a high-performance, local service for programming development\url{https://execrepobench.github.io/}.
Samba: Synchronized Set-of-Sequences Modeling for Multiple Object Tracking
Multiple object tracking in complex scenarios - such as coordinated dance performances, team sports, or dynamic animal groups - presents unique challenges. In these settings, objects frequently move in coordinated patterns, occlude each other, and exhibit long-term dependencies in their trajectories. However, it remains a key open research question on how to model long-range dependencies within tracklets, interdependencies among tracklets, and the associated temporal occlusions. To this end, we introduce Samba, a novel linear-time set-of-sequences model designed to jointly process multiple tracklets by synchronizing the multiple selective state-spaces used to model each tracklet. Samba autoregressively predicts the future track query for each sequence while maintaining synchronized long-term memory representations across tracklets. By integrating Samba into a tracking-by-propagation framework, we propose SambaMOTR, the first tracker effectively addressing the aforementioned issues, including long-range dependencies, tracklet interdependencies, and temporal occlusions. Additionally, we introduce an effective technique for dealing with uncertain observations (MaskObs) and an efficient training recipe to scale SambaMOTR to longer sequences. By modeling long-range dependencies and interactions among tracked objects, SambaMOTR implicitly learns to track objects accurately through occlusions without any hand-crafted heuristics. Our approach significantly surpasses prior state-of-the-art on the DanceTrack, BFT, and SportsMOT datasets.
Code-Survey: An LLM-Driven Methodology for Analyzing Large-Scale Codebases
Modern software systems like the Linux kernel are among the world's largest and most intricate codebases, continually evolving with new features and increasing complexity. Understanding these systems poses significant challenges due to their scale and the unstructured nature of development artifacts such as commits and mailing list discussions. We introduce Code-Survey, the first LLM-driven methodology designed to systematically explore and analyze large-scale codebases. The central principle behind Code-Survey is to treat LLMs as human participants, acknowledging that software development is also a social activity and thereby enabling the application of established social science techniques. By carefully designing surveys, Code-Survey transforms unstructured data, such as commits, emails, into organized, structured, and analyzable datasets. This enables quantitative analysis of complex software evolution and uncovers valuable insights related to design, implementation, maintenance, reliability, and security. To demonstrate the effectiveness of Code-Survey, we apply it to the Linux kernel's eBPF subsystem. We construct the Linux-bpf dataset, comprising over 670 features and 16,000 commits from the Linux community. Our quantitative analysis uncovers important insights into the evolution of eBPF, such as development patterns, feature interdependencies, and areas requiring attention for reliability and security. The insights have been initially validated by eBPF experts. Furthermore, Code-Survey can be directly applied to other subsystems within Linux and to other large-scale software projects. By providing a versatile tool for systematic analysis, Code-Survey facilitates a deeper understanding of complex software systems, enabling improvements across a variety of domains and supporting a wide range of empirical studies. The code and dataset is open-sourced.
Modelling the 5G Energy Consumption using Real-world Data: Energy Fingerprint is All You Need
The introduction of fifth-generation (5G) radio technology has revolutionized communications, bringing unprecedented automation, capacity, connectivity, and ultra-fast, reliable communications. However, this technological leap comes with a substantial increase in energy consumption, presenting a significant challenge. To improve the energy efficiency of 5G networks, it is imperative to develop sophisticated models that accurately reflect the influence of base station (BS) attributes and operational conditions on energy usage.Importantly, addressing the complexity and interdependencies of these diverse features is particularly challenging, both in terms of data processing and model architecture design. This paper proposes a novel 5G base stations energy consumption modelling method by learning from a real-world dataset used in the ITU 5G Base Station Energy Consumption Modelling Challenge in which our model ranked second. Unlike existing methods that omit the Base Station Identifier (BSID) information and thus fail to capture the unique energy fingerprint in different base stations, we incorporate the BSID into the input features and encoding it with an embedding layer for precise representation. Additionally, we introduce a novel masked training method alongside an attention mechanism to further boost the model's generalization capabilities and accuracy. After evaluation, our method demonstrates significant improvements over existing models, reducing Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) from 12.75% to 4.98%, leading to a performance gain of more than 60%.
DVIS: Decoupled Video Instance Segmentation Framework
Video instance segmentation (VIS) is a critical task with diverse applications, including autonomous driving and video editing. Existing methods often underperform on complex and long videos in real world, primarily due to two factors. Firstly, offline methods are limited by the tightly-coupled modeling paradigm, which treats all frames equally and disregards the interdependencies between adjacent frames. Consequently, this leads to the introduction of excessive noise during long-term temporal alignment. Secondly, online methods suffer from inadequate utilization of temporal information. To tackle these challenges, we propose a decoupling strategy for VIS by dividing it into three independent sub-tasks: segmentation, tracking, and refinement. The efficacy of the decoupling strategy relies on two crucial elements: 1) attaining precise long-term alignment outcomes via frame-by-frame association during tracking, and 2) the effective utilization of temporal information predicated on the aforementioned accurate alignment outcomes during refinement. We introduce a novel referring tracker and temporal refiner to construct the Decoupled VIS framework (DVIS). DVIS achieves new SOTA performance in both VIS and VPS, surpassing the current SOTA methods by 7.3 AP and 9.6 VPQ on the OVIS and VIPSeg datasets, which are the most challenging and realistic benchmarks. Moreover, thanks to the decoupling strategy, the referring tracker and temporal refiner are super light-weight (only 1.69\% of the segmenter FLOPs), allowing for efficient training and inference on a single GPU with 11G memory. The code is available at https://github.com/zhang-tao-whu/DVIS{https://github.com/zhang-tao-whu/DVIS}.
Forget Unlearning: Towards True Data-Deletion in Machine Learning
Unlearning algorithms aim to remove deleted data's influence from trained models at a cost lower than full retraining. However, prior guarantees of unlearning in literature are flawed and don't protect the privacy of deleted records. We show that when users delete their data as a function of published models, records in a database become interdependent. So, even retraining a fresh model after deletion of a record doesn't ensure its privacy. Secondly, unlearning algorithms that cache partial computations to speed up the processing can leak deleted information over a series of releases, violating the privacy of deleted records in the long run. To address these, we propose a sound deletion guarantee and show that the privacy of existing records is necessary for the privacy of deleted records. Under this notion, we propose an accurate, computationally efficient, and secure machine unlearning algorithm based on noisy gradient descent.
Single Image Super-Resolution via a Holistic Attention Network
Informative features play a crucial role in the single image super-resolution task. Channel attention has been demonstrated to be effective for preserving information-rich features in each layer. However, channel attention treats each convolution layer as a separate process that misses the correlation among different layers. To address this problem, we propose a new holistic attention network (HAN), which consists of a layer attention module (LAM) and a channel-spatial attention module (CSAM), to model the holistic interdependencies among layers, channels, and positions. Specifically, the proposed LAM adaptively emphasizes hierarchical features by considering correlations among layers. Meanwhile, CSAM learns the confidence at all the positions of each channel to selectively capture more informative features. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed HAN performs favorably against the state-of-the-art single image super-resolution approaches.
Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks
The central building block of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is the convolution operator, which enables networks to construct informative features by fusing both spatial and channel-wise information within local receptive fields at each layer. A broad range of prior research has investigated the spatial component of this relationship, seeking to strengthen the representational power of a CNN by enhancing the quality of spatial encodings throughout its feature hierarchy. In this work, we focus instead on the channel relationship and propose a novel architectural unit, which we term the "Squeeze-and-Excitation" (SE) block, that adaptively recalibrates channel-wise feature responses by explicitly modelling interdependencies between channels. We show that these blocks can be stacked together to form SENet architectures that generalise extremely effectively across different datasets. We further demonstrate that SE blocks bring significant improvements in performance for existing state-of-the-art CNNs at slight additional computational cost. Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks formed the foundation of our ILSVRC 2017 classification submission which won first place and reduced the top-5 error to 2.251%, surpassing the winning entry of 2016 by a relative improvement of ~25%. Models and code are available at https://github.com/hujie-frank/SENet.
RHYTHM: Reasoning with Hierarchical Temporal Tokenization for Human Mobility
Predicting human mobility is inherently challenging due to complex long-range dependencies and multi-scale periodic behaviors. To address this, we introduce RHYTHM (Reasoning with Hierarchical Temporal Tokenization for Human Mobility), a unified framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) as general-purpose spatio-temporal predictors and trajectory reasoners. Methodologically, RHYTHM employs temporal tokenization to partition each trajectory into daily segments and encode them as discrete tokens with hierarchical attention that captures both daily and weekly dependencies, thereby significantly reducing the sequence length while preserving cyclical information. Additionally, we enrich token representations by adding pre-computed prompt embeddings for trajectory segments and prediction targets via a frozen LLM, and feeding these combined embeddings back into the LLM backbone to capture complex interdependencies. Computationally, RHYTHM freezes the pretrained LLM's backbone to reduce attention complexity and memory cost. We evaluate our model against state-of-the-art methods using three real-world datasets. Notably, RHYTHM achieves a 2.4% improvement in overall accuracy, a 5.0% increase on weekends, and a 24.6% reduction in training time. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/he-h/rhythm.
ISCS: Parameter-Guided Channel Ordering and Grouping for Learned Image Compression
Prior studies in learned image compression (LIC) consistently show that only a small subset of latent channels is critical for reconstruction, while many others carry limited information. Exploiting this imbalance could improve both coding and computational efficiency, yet existing approaches often rely on costly, dataset-specific ablation tests and typically analyze channels in isolation, ignoring their interdependencies. We propose a generalizable, dataset-agnostic method to identify and organize important channels in pretrained VAE-based LIC models. Instead of brute-force empirical evaluations, our approach leverages intrinsic parameter statistics-weight variances, bias magnitudes, and pairwise correlations-to estimate channel importance. This analysis reveals a consistent organizational structure, termed the Invariant Salient Channel Space (ISCS), where Salient-Core channels capture dominant structures and Salient-Auxiliary channels provide complementary details. Building on ISCS, we introduce a deterministic channel ordering and grouping strategy that enables slice-parallel decoding, reduces redundancy, and improves bitrate efficiency. Experiments across multiple LIC architectures demonstrate that our method effectively reduces bitrate and computation while maintaining reconstruction quality, providing a practical and modular enhancement to existing learned compression frameworks.
Harnessing Scale and Physics: A Multi-Graph Neural Operator Framework for PDEs on Arbitrary Geometries
Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) underpin many scientific phenomena, yet traditional computational approaches often struggle with complex, nonlinear systems and irregular geometries. This paper introduces the AMG method, a Multi-Graph neural operator approach designed for efficiently solving PDEs on Arbitrary geometries. AMG leverages advanced graph-based techniques and dynamic attention mechanisms within a novel GraphFormer architecture, enabling precise management of diverse spatial domains and complex data interdependencies. By constructing multi-scale graphs to handle variable feature frequencies and a physics graph to encapsulate inherent physical properties, AMG significantly outperforms previous methods, which are typically limited to uniform grids. We present a comprehensive evaluation of AMG across six benchmarks, demonstrating its consistent superiority over existing state-of-the-art models. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of tailored graph neural operators in surmounting the challenges faced by conventional PDE solvers. Our code and datasets are available on https://github.com/lizhihao2022/AMG.
ECAPA-TDNN: Emphasized Channel Attention, Propagation and Aggregation in TDNN Based Speaker Verification
Current speaker verification techniques rely on a neural network to extract speaker representations. The successful x-vector architecture is a Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) that applies statistics pooling to project variable-length utterances into fixed-length speaker characterizing embeddings. In this paper, we propose multiple enhancements to this architecture based on recent trends in the related fields of face verification and computer vision. Firstly, the initial frame layers can be restructured into 1-dimensional Res2Net modules with impactful skip connections. Similarly to SE-ResNet, we introduce Squeeze-and-Excitation blocks in these modules to explicitly model channel interdependencies. The SE block expands the temporal context of the frame layer by rescaling the channels according to global properties of the recording. Secondly, neural networks are known to learn hierarchical features, with each layer operating on a different level of complexity. To leverage this complementary information, we aggregate and propagate features of different hierarchical levels. Finally, we improve the statistics pooling module with channel-dependent frame attention. This enables the network to focus on different subsets of frames during each of the channel's statistics estimation. The proposed ECAPA-TDNN architecture significantly outperforms state-of-the-art TDNN based systems on the VoxCeleb test sets and the 2019 VoxCeleb Speaker Recognition Challenge.
How to Understand Whole Software Repository?
Recently, Large Language Model (LLM) based agents have advanced the significant development of Automatic Software Engineering (ASE). Although verified effectiveness, the designs of the existing methods mainly focus on the local information of codes, e.g., issues, classes, and functions, leading to limitations in capturing the global context and interdependencies within the software system. From the practical experiences of the human SE developers, we argue that an excellent understanding of the whole repository will be the critical path to ASE. However, understanding the whole repository raises various challenges, e.g., the extremely long code input, the noisy code information, the complex dependency relationships, etc. To this end, we develop a novel ASE method named RepoUnderstander by guiding agents to comprehensively understand the whole repositories. Specifically, we first condense the critical information of the whole repository into the repository knowledge graph in a top-to-down mode to decrease the complexity of repository. Subsequently, we empower the agents the ability of understanding whole repository by proposing a Monte Carlo tree search based repository exploration strategy. In addition, to better utilize the repository-level knowledge, we guide the agents to summarize, analyze, and plan. Then, they can manipulate the tools to dynamically acquire information and generate the patches to solve the real-world GitHub issues. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed RepoUnderstander. It achieved 18.5\% relative improvement on the SWE-bench Lite benchmark compared to SWE-agent.
Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability
Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.
